SC Freiburg 2-1 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 20 as SC Freiburg welcome Borussia Dortmund to Schwarzwald-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 February 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg at Schwarzwald-Stadion this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Dortmund stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
SC Freiburg carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 68% and Borussia Dortmund 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Freiburg 68% | Borussia Dortmund 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 2.19 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.354 / defence 1.130 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.091 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.427. SC Freiburg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.354 — their λ of 2.19 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Borussia Dortmund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.306 — this is suppressing SC Freiburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 SC Freiburg games / 19 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 48% | Draw 21% | Borussia Dortmund 31%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.08 | Draw 4.76 | Borussia Dortmund 3.23. SC Freiburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.95. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.95 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.19 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 74%. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 80% | Borussia Dortmund 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Schwarzwald-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 48% | Draw 21% | Borussia Dortmund 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 74% | xG SC Freiburg 2.19 / Borussia Dortmund 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.354 / def 1.130 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.091 / def 1.306 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Borussia Dortmund xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 6 February 2021 at Schwarzwald-Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
SC Freiburg 2 - 1 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Schwarzwald-Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 48% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 31% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SC Freiburg's attack at 1.35x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 2.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
48%
2.09
21%
4.71
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.95
1.76
Borussia Dortmund xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.84
Clean Sheet
17%
5.81
11%
8.98
Win to Nil
8%
12.15
3%
28.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.76 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.95.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 19 outings, SC Freiburg have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 7W 6D 6L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund's form line: 10W 2D 7L from 19 games, 1.68 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Freiburg on 1.42 PPG, Borussia Dortmund on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SC Freiburg have posted 1.60 PPG from 10 outings (4W 4D 2L).
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.00 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Borussia Dortmund in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 7W 6D 6L in their last 19 games (1.42 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 10W 2D 7L in their last 19 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.60 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.60 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2022, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
SC Freiburg
1
Draws
8
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 1, Borussia Dortmund have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 4-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Freiburg at 80%, Borussia Dortmund at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for SC Freiburg and 60% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of SC Freiburg's games and 70% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of SC Freiburg's matches and 60% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Freiburg edge out Borussia Dortmund 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat Borussia Dortmund 2-1 at Schwarzwald-Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 2.19 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.76 xG, a combined 3.95. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.35 / defence 1.13 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.09 / defence 1.31, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 48% | Draw 21% | Borussia Dortmund 31%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 68%, Borussia Dortmund 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.42 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.