SC Freiburg 2-1 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bayer Leverkusen at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen make the trip to Europa-Park Stadion to face SC Freiburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 December 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
SC Freiburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Europa-Park Stadion, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — SC Freiburg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Bayer Leverkusen in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
SC Freiburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 58% and Bayer Leverkusen 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 62% | Bayer Leverkusen 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.49 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.854 / defence 0.993 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.389 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.729 / away 1.323. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack strength of 1.389 — the away xG of 1.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 SC Freiburg games / 50 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 30% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 44%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.32 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 70% | Bayer Leverkusen 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 30% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 67% | xG SC Freiburg 1.49 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 0.854 / def 0.993 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.389 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.729 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Bayer Leverkusen xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
SC Freiburg 2 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 30% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (0.85) and Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.39x) against SC Freiburg's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
30%
3.35
26%
3.78
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.32
1.82
Bayer Leverkusen xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
16%
6.20
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
5%
20.79
10%
10.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.9 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.82 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SC Freiburg come into this having played 50 games, going 19W 14D 17L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bayer Leverkusen sit at 1.60 PPG from 50 outings (22W 14D 14L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for SC Freiburg against 1.60 for Bayer Leverkusen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
SC Freiburg's home form reads 10W 8D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Bayer Leverkusen have taken 1.54 points per game from 24 outings (10W 7D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 1.84 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen in 62%.
Last 50 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 19W 14D 17L in their last 50 games (1.42 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 22W 14D 14L in their last 50 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.58 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 5-1 on 21 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
SC Freiburg
3
Draws
5
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 2, Bayer Leverkusen have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when SC Freiburg 3-3 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 67%, Bayer Leverkusen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (SC Freiburg) and 54% (Bayer Leverkusen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SC Freiburg's games and 54% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of SC Freiburg's matches and 54% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SC Freiburg defy the odds to beat Bayer Leverkusen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.49 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.82 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.85 / defence 0.99 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.39 / defence 1.01, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 30% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 44%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual SC Freiburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 62%, Bayer Leverkusen 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.42 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.