RB Leipzig 2-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Leipzig at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
RB Leipzig host FC Augsburg at Red Bull Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 12 February 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
RB Leipzig — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Leipzig's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Red Bull Arena this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Red Bull Arena. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — RB Leipzig are significantly better at Red Bull Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg away from home this season: 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, RB Leipzig have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
RB Leipzig in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Leipzig 45% versus FC Augsburg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Leipzig 50% | FC Augsburg 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Leipzig 1.50 xG and FC Augsburg 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Leipzig attack 0.976 / defence 0.819 | FC Augsburg attack 0.652 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.445. FC Augsburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.242 — this is suppressing RB Leipzig's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 RB Leipzig games / 20 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Leipzig 54% | Draw 27% | FC Augsburg 19%. Fair-value odds: RB Leipzig 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | FC Augsburg 5.26. RB Leipzig hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Leipzig are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Leipzig offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: RB Leipzig 40% | FC Augsburg 56%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Friday 12 Feb 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Leipzig 54% | Draw 27% | FC Augsburg 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 42% | xG RB Leipzig 1.50 / FC Augsburg 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: RB Leipzig attack 0.976 / def 0.819 | FC Augsburg attack 0.652 / def 1.242 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
RB Leipzig xG
Expected Goals
0.77
FC Augsburg xG
42%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg kick off?
RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 12 February 2021 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
RB Leipzig 2 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg part of?
RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives RB Leipzig a 54% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg in?
RB Leipzig (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
RB Leipzig's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus RB Leipzig's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
54%
1.85
27%
3.72
19%
5.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
RB Leipzig xG
Total xG
2.27
0.77
FC Augsburg xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
5.29
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
4%
23.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 11.9 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 0.77 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RB Leipzig come into this having played 20 games, going 12W 5D 3L for 2.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.10 PPG from 20 outings (6W 4D 10L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Leipzig carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
RB Leipzig's home form reads 7W 1D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.44 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 1.22 points per game from 9 outings (3W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
RB Leipzig are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Leipzig
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
RB Leipzig have gone 12W 5D 3L in their last 20 games (2.05 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 6W 4D 10L in their last 20 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Leipzig at home or FC Augsburg away?
RB Leipzig's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Leipzig at home: 2.44 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.22 PPG.
Have RB Leipzig or FC Augsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, FC Augsburg in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
RB Leipzig go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Oct 2025, when RB Leipzig won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RB Leipzig's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
RB Leipzig
4
Draws
0
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Leipzig have won 6, FC Augsburg have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when RB Leipzig 2-1 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RB Leipzig see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
FC Augsburg see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Leipzig 33%, FC Augsburg 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (RB Leipzig) and 44% (FC Augsburg).
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; FC Augsburg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Leipzig home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Leipzig play FC Augsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of RB Leipzig's recent matches and 56% of FC Augsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of RB Leipzig's recent games and 44% of FC Augsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as RB Leipzig edge out FC Augsburg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat FC Augsburg 2-1 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 1.50 xG and FC Augsburg 0.77 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 0.98 / defence 0.82 against FC Augsburg attack 0.65 / defence 1.24, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 54% | Draw 27% | FC Augsburg 19%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 50%, FC Augsburg 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Leipzig's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.