Hertha BSC 4-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hertha BSC vs Borussia Mönchengladbach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hertha BSC and Borussia Mönchengladbach meet at Olympiastadion Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 February 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hertha BSC have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hertha BSC have posted 2W 4D 4L at Olympiastadion Berlin — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Borussia Mönchengladbach arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Hertha BSC, 2 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Borussia Mönchengladbach winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Hertha BSC half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Borussia Mönchengladbach half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 57% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 57% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.32 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.745 / defence 1.348 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.043 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.861 / away 1.362. Hertha BSC's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Hertha BSC games / 53 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 24% | Draw 26% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 49%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.04. Borussia Mönchengladbach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 1.92) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Mönchengladbach at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 60% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Feb 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 24% | Draw 26% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Hertha BSC 1.32 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.745 / def 1.348 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.043 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.861 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
Hertha BSC vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 12 February 2023 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Hertha BSC 4 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is Hertha BSC vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
Hertha BSC vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 24% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Hertha BSC and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (5 meetings): Hertha BSC 1W | Draws 2 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 2W.
What form are Hertha BSC and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hertha BSC's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack (1.04x) against Hertha BSC's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.92.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
24%
4.11
26%
3.78
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
3.24
1.92
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
4.11
24%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
15%
6.79
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
4%
27.92
13%
7.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.92 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Hertha BSC have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 13W 11D 29L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form line: 19W 14D 20L from 53 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hertha BSC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hertha BSC have posted 1.08 PPG from 26 outings (7W 7D 12L).
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 5W 9D 12L from 26 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.34 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Borussia Mönchengladbach's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.66 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach in 70%.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 13W 11D 29L in their last 53 games (0.94 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 19W 14D 20L in their last 53 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.08 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hertha BSC won 4-1 on 12 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hertha BSC have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Borussia Mönchengladbach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Hertha BSC
2
Draws
2
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 2, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2023, when Hertha BSC 4-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Hertha BSC, 69% for Borussia Mönchengladbach — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Hertha BSC) and 58% (Borussia Mönchengladbach). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Hertha BSC's games and 69% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Hertha BSC's matches and 58% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do Hertha BSC and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hertha BSC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Borussia Mönchengladbach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-1 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.32 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.92 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Hertha BSC beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Borussia Mönchengladbach landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.74 / defence 1.35 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.04 / defence 0.95, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 24% | Draw 26% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 49%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Hertha BSC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 57%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Mönchengladbach arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Hertha BSC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.