FSV Mainz 05 1-1 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FSV Mainz 05 vs 1. FC Köln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 and 1. FC Köln meet at MEWA ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 April 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
FSV Mainz 05 (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FSV Mainz 05's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at MEWA ARENA this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game.
1. FC Köln's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, 1. FC Köln have posted 1W 6D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. FSV Mainz 05's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of 1. FC Köln's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for FSV Mainz 05, 2 for 1. FC Köln and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FSV Mainz 05 — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
1. FC Köln — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FSV Mainz 05 61% versus 1. FC Köln 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 55% | 1. FC Köln 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.62 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.007 / defence 0.751 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.775 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.410. FSV Mainz 05's defence rating of 0.751 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 64 FSV Mainz 05 games / 64 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 55% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Köln 17%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | 1. FC Köln 5.88. The model has a clear lean to FSV Mainz 05 (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FSV Mainz 05 are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: FSV Mainz 05 40% | 1. FC Köln 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: MEWA ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 55% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Köln 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.62 / 1. FC Köln 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.007 / def 0.751 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.775 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
0.82
1. FC Köln xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at MEWA ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs 1. FC Köln?
FSV Mainz 05 1 - 1 1. FC Köln.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at MEWA ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs 1. FC Köln part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 55% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and 1. FC Köln?
Record (7 meetings): FSV Mainz 05 2W | Draws 3 | 1. FC Köln 2W.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and 1. FC Köln in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FSV Mainz 05's attack rating (1.01) and 1. FC Köln's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Köln's attack (0.78x) against FSV Mainz 05's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
55%
1.83
28%
3.53
17%
5.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
2.44
0.82
1. FC Köln xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
5.85
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
3%
29.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 11.6 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 0.82 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs 1. FC Köln?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FSV Mainz 05 come into this having played 64 games, going 17W 22D 25L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, 1. FC Köln sit at 1.00 PPG from 64 outings (14W 22D 28L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for FSV Mainz 05 against 1.00 for 1. FC Köln. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FSV Mainz 05's home form reads 11W 10D 11L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.34 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Köln have taken 0.91 points per game from 32 outings (5W 14D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FSV Mainz 05 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.12 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FSV Mainz 05 have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Current Season
1. FC Köln
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 17W 22D 25L in their last 64 games (1.14 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 14W 22D 28L in their last 64 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or 1. FC Köln away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.34 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
1. FC Köln have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FSV Mainz 05 won 5-0 on 21 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FSV Mainz 05
4
Draws
4
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and 1. FC Köln?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 2, 1. FC Köln have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when 1. FC Köln 2-1 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and 1. FC Köln?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 56%, 1. FC Köln 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FSV Mainz 05) and 41% (1. FC Köln).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of FSV Mainz 05's games and 59% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 41% of 1. FC Köln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FSV Mainz 05 and 1. FC Köln share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 and 1. FC Köln finished level at 1-1 at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.62 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.82 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.01 / defence 0.75 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.78 / defence 0.98, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 55% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Köln 17%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 55%, 1. FC Köln 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.14 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.