FC St. Pauli 0-0 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Wolfsburg at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC St. Pauli host VfL Wolfsburg at Millerntor-Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC St. Pauli — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC St. Pauli have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Millerntor-Stadion, FC St. Pauli have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC St. Pauli are significantly better at Millerntor-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfL Wolfsburg stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. VfL Wolfsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VfL Wolfsburg away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC St. Pauli at 1.00 PPG versus VfL Wolfsburg's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
FC St. Pauli in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
VfL Wolfsburg in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC St. Pauli 58% and VfL Wolfsburg 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 56% | VfL Wolfsburg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 0.91 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 0.527 / defence 1.046 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.082 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.680. FC St. Pauli's attack strength of 0.527 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 FC St. Pauli games / 41 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 16% | Draw 25% | VfL Wolfsburg 59%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 6.25 | Draw 4.00 | VfL Wolfsburg 1.69. The model has a clear lean to VfL Wolfsburg (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfL Wolfsburg at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: FC St. Pauli 40% | VfL Wolfsburg 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 16% | Draw 25% | VfL Wolfsburg 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG FC St. Pauli 0.91 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 0.527 / def 1.046 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.082 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.680 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (59%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.90
VfL Wolfsburg xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
FC St. Pauli 0 - 0 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 16% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 59% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC St. Pauli's attack rating (0.53) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 1.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
16%
6.36
25%
3.97
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.81
1.90
VfL Wolfsburg xG
6.36
16%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
15%
6.70
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
2%
42.62
24%
4.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 11.5 | 10.9 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.90 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, FC St. Pauli have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 21W 10D 10L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VfL Wolfsburg's form line: 12W 8D 21L from 41 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, FC St. Pauli are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfL Wolfsburg.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC St. Pauli have posted 1.95 PPG from 20 outings (11W 6D 3L).
On the road, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 6W 3D 11L from 20 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.37 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Wolfsburg in 66%.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Early Season
VfL Wolfsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 21W 10D 10L in their last 41 games (1.78 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 12W 8D 21L in their last 41 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 1.95 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
VfL Wolfsburg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
FC St. Pauli's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
FC St. Pauli
2
Draws
2
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 4 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 0, VfL Wolfsburg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when FC St. Pauli 1-3 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 50%, VfL Wolfsburg 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC St. Pauli) and 55% (VfL Wolfsburg).
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; FC St. Pauli have failed to score in 30% of games; VfL Wolfsburg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play VfL Wolfsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 55% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC St. Pauli's recent games and 55% of VfL Wolfsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC St. Pauli's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg finished level at 0-0 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 0.91 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.90 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC St. Pauli fell 0.9 short of their projected output. VfL Wolfsburg landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.53 / defence 1.05 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.08 / defence 1.04, drawn from 7/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 16% | Draw 25% | VfL Wolfsburg 59%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 56%, VfL Wolfsburg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.