1. FC Heidenheim 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bayer Leverkusen (69%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as 1. FC Heidenheim face Bayer Leverkusen.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Voith-Arena plays host to 1. FC Heidenheim versus Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga (matchday 28). Kick-off: Saturday 5 April 2025 at 15:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Heidenheim have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bayer Leverkusen away from home: 6W 4D 0L from their last 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head sample leans to Bayer Leverkusen, who have 3 wins from 3 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 1. FC Heidenheim 2–5 Bayer Leverkusen — a Bayer Leverkusen win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Bayer Leverkusen have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 5.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 32 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Bayer Leverkusen half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 61% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 86%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Heidenheim 61% and Bayer Leverkusen 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 54% | Bayer Leverkusen 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 0.98 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 2.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.743 / defence 1.219 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.382 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.422. 1. FC Heidenheim's attack rating of 0.743 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack rating of 1.382, which lifts their away xG to 2.40. 1. FC Heidenheim's defence rating of 1.219 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bayer Leverkusen's projected output up. Data: built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 61 games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 61.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 14% | Draw 18% | Bayer Leverkusen 69%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 7.36 | Draw 5.61 | Bayer Leverkusen 1.46. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (69%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayer Leverkusen are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 home games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 5.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Heidenheim 40% (last 10 home games) | Bayer Leverkusen 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 28 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 April 2025 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 14% | Draw 18% | Bayer Leverkusen 69% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 0.98 / Bayer Leverkusen 2.40 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.743 / def 1.219 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.382 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
2.40
Bayer Leverkusen xG
57%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen FAQs
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
1. FC Heidenheim 0 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 28) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 14% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 69% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from 1. FC Heidenheim's attack rating (0.74) and Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.38x) against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 2.40.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 61 games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
14%
7.36
18%
5.61
69%
1.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.38
2.40
Bayer Leverkusen xG
7.36
14%
Home win
5.61
18%
Draw
1.46
69%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
9%
10.98
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
1%
80.79
26%
3.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 2.40 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Heidenheim's recent record stands at 16W 16D 29L from 61 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-W in the last five.
Bayer Leverkusen, meanwhile, have gone 45W 14D 2L across 61 games — 2.44 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bayer Leverkusen by 1.39 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Heidenheim heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, 1. FC Heidenheim have managed 10W 6D 14L from their last 30 home games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bayer Leverkusen's away record stands at 22W 8D 0L across their last 30 away games, a 2.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.48 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Heidenheim have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Bayer Leverkusen in 62%.
Defensively: Bayer Leverkusen in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim (Home) vs Bayer Leverkusen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 16W 16D 29L in their last 61 games (1.05 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 45W 14D 2L in their last 61 (2.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 1.20 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 2.47 PPG.
Have 1. FC Heidenheim or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won Bayer Leverkusen 6-0 1. FC Heidenheim on 8 Nov 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
5
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, Bayer Leverkusen have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: 1. FC Heidenheim 3-3 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 57%, Bayer Leverkusen 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 63% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen in 37%; 1. FC Heidenheim have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 63% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 63% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 90% of Bayer Leverkusen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bayer Leverkusen edge out 1. FC Heidenheim 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat 1. FC Heidenheim 0-1 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 0.98 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 2.40 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Heidenheim fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Bayer Leverkusen landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.74 / defence 1.22 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.38 / defence 0.86, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 14% | Draw 18% | Bayer Leverkusen 69%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 54%, Bayer Leverkusen 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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