FC Augsburg 1-2 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg meet at WWK Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 February 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
FC Augsburg (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's home record at WWK Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at WWK Arena than their overall form suggests.
SC Freiburg have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.20 for SC Freiburg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for FC Augsburg, 1 for SC Freiburg and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 0–3 with SC Freiburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FC Augsburg half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
SC Freiburg half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 55% versus SC Freiburg 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 48% | SC Freiburg 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.56 xG and SC Freiburg 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.977 / defence 0.916 | SC Freiburg attack 0.958 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.773 / away 1.394. Data: 56 FC Augsburg games / 56 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 43% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 27%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | SC Freiburg 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 70% | SC Freiburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 43% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG FC Augsburg 1.56 / SC Freiburg 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.977 / def 0.916 | SC Freiburg attack 0.958 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.773 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.22
SC Freiburg xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg kick off?
FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
FC Augsburg 1 - 2 SC Freiburg.
Where is FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg part of?
FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 43% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg?
Record (1 meetings): FC Augsburg 0W | Draws 0 | SC Freiburg 1W.
What form are FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. SC Freiburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Augsburg's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against SC Freiburg's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (0.96x) against FC Augsburg's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
43%
2.33
30%
3.37
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.79
1.22
SC Freiburg xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
6%
17.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.22 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Augsburg come into this having played 56 games, going 15W 13D 28L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Freiburg sit at 1.41 PPG from 56 outings (21W 16D 19L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.41 for SC Freiburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC Augsburg's home form reads 10W 7D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Freiburg have taken 1.11 points per game from 27 outings (8W 6D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.54 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 15W 13D 28L in their last 56 games (1.04 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 21W 16D 19L in their last 56 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or SC Freiburg away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.37 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 0-4 on 6 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Augsburg
2
Draws
6
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 2, SC Freiburg have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-2 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
SC Freiburg see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 59%, SC Freiburg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (FC Augsburg) and 59% (SC Freiburg).
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg have failed to score in 26% of games; SC Freiburg in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 48% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 59% of SC Freiburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SC Freiburg defy the odds to beat FC Augsburg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat FC Augsburg 1-2 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.56 xG and SC Freiburg 1.22 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.98 / defence 0.92 against SC Freiburg attack 0.96 / defence 0.90, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 43% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 27%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual SC Freiburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 48%, SC Freiburg 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.04 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.