FC Augsburg 2-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg meet at WWK Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 February 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
FC Augsburg (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's home record at WWK Arena: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SC Freiburg have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.40 for SC Freiburg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to SC Freiburg, who have claimed 5 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with SC Freiburg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SC Freiburg have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
FC Augsburg half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
SC Freiburg half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 66% versus SC Freiburg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 57% | SC Freiburg 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.89 xG and SC Freiburg 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.964 / defence 1.126 | SC Freiburg attack 0.818 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.259. Data: 56 FC Augsburg games / 56 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 53% | Draw 26% | SC Freiburg 22%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | SC Freiburg 4.55. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 90% | SC Freiburg 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 53% | Draw 26% | SC Freiburg 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG FC Augsburg 1.89 / SC Freiburg 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.964 / def 1.126 | SC Freiburg attack 0.818 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.16
SC Freiburg xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg kick off?
FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
FC Augsburg 2 - 1 SC Freiburg.
Where is FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg part of?
FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 53% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg?
Record (5 meetings): FC Augsburg 0W | Draws 0 | SC Freiburg 5W.
What form are FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Augsburg's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against SC Freiburg's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (0.82x) against FC Augsburg's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
53%
1.90
26%
3.90
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.04
1.16
SC Freiburg xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
15%
6.59
Win to Nil
17%
6.06
3%
30.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.4 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.16 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Augsburg come into this having played 56 games, going 14W 15D 27L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Freiburg sit at 1.57 PPG from 56 outings (25W 13D 18L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FC Augsburg's home form reads 9W 9D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Freiburg have taken 1.25 points per game from 28 outings (10W 5D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.43 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: SC Freiburg in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 14W 15D 27L in their last 56 games (1.02 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 25W 13D 18L in their last 56 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or SC Freiburg away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.29 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.25 PPG.
Have FC Augsburg or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Augsburg have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 0-4 on 6 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Augsburg
2
Draws
6
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 2, SC Freiburg have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-2 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 64%, SC Freiburg 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (FC Augsburg) and 64% (SC Freiburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 36%; SC Freiburg in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play SC Freiburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of FC Augsburg's games and 46% of SC Freiburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of FC Augsburg's matches and 64% of SC Freiburg's.
Do FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Augsburg edge out SC Freiburg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat SC Freiburg 2-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.89 xG and SC Freiburg 1.16 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.96 / defence 1.13 against SC Freiburg attack 0.82 / defence 1.18, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 53% | Draw 26% | SC Freiburg 22%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 57%, SC Freiburg 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with FC Augsburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.