FC Augsburg 2-3 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 42%, yet in-form FSV Mainz 05 provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus FSV Mainz 05 in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Friday 20 September 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Augsburg have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at WWK Arena, FC Augsburg have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at WWK Arena than their overall form suggests.
FSV Mainz 05's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FSV Mainz 05 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FSV Mainz 05's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
FSV Mainz 05 arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FSV Mainz 05 in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: FC Augsburg 2W, FSV Mainz 05 4W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 0–1 with FSV Mainz 05 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
FSV Mainz 05 — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 68% and FSV Mainz 05 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 65% | FSV Mainz 05 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.95 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 1.096 / defence 0.993 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.103 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.569. Data: 37 FC Augsburg games / 37 FSV Mainz 05 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 42% | Draw 25% | FSV Mainz 05 33%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | FSV Mainz 05 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Augsburg are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FSV Mainz 05 (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 60% | FSV Mainz 05 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Friday 20 Sep 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 42% | Draw 25% | FSV Mainz 05 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 72% | xG FC Augsburg 1.95 / FSV Mainz 05 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 1.096 / def 0.993 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.103 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.569 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.72
FSV Mainz 05 xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 20 September 2024 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
FC Augsburg 2 - 3 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 42% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05?
Record (6 meetings): FC Augsburg 2W | Draws 0 | FSV Mainz 05 4W.
What form are FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 1.10x the league average against FSV Mainz 05's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FSV Mainz 05's attack (1.10x) against FC Augsburg's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
42%
2.37
25%
4.00
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.67
1.72
FSV Mainz 05 xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.59
Clean Sheet
18%
5.58
14%
7.04
Win to Nil
8%
13.23
5%
21.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.72 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Augsburg's recent record stands at 11W 10D 16L from 37 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FSV Mainz 05, meanwhile, have gone 7W 16D 14L across 37 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-W-D-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.00 for FSV Mainz 05. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Augsburg have managed 7W 6D 5L from 18 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FSV Mainz 05's away record stands at 1W 10D 7L across 18 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Augsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.19 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; FSV Mainz 05 in 62%.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Early Season
FSV Mainz 05
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 11W 10D 16L in their last 37 games (1.16 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 7W 16D 14L in their last 37 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.50 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FSV Mainz 05 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FSV Mainz 05 won 4-1 on 22 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FSV Mainz 05 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Augsburg
1
Draws
7
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 2, FSV Mainz 05 have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 72% for FC Augsburg, 72% for FSV Mainz 05 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (FC Augsburg) and 56% (FSV Mainz 05). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play FSV Mainz 05?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of FC Augsburg's games and 72% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of FC Augsburg's matches and 56% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FSV Mainz 05 defy the odds to beat FC Augsburg 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 beat FC Augsburg 2-3 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.95 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.72 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 outscored their 1.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 1.10 / defence 0.99 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.10 / defence 1.08, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 42% | Draw 25% | FSV Mainz 05 33%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual FSV Mainz 05 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 65%, FSV Mainz 05 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.16 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FSV Mainz 05 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.