FC Augsburg 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 38%, yet in-form Eintracht Frankfurt provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Eintracht Frankfurt travel to WWK Arena to take on FC Augsburg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 January 2022, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at WWK Arena, FC Augsburg have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Eintracht Frankfurt are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FC Augsburg have won 0, Eintracht Frankfurt 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 92% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 54% and Eintracht Frankfurt 81% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 48% | Eintracht Frankfurt 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.81 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 1.037 / defence 1.112 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.192 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.697 / away 1.330. Data: 52 FC Augsburg games / 52 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 38% | Draw 25% | Eintracht Frankfurt 37%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Augsburg are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Eintracht Frankfurt (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.57 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 70% | Eintracht Frankfurt 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jan 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 38% | Draw 25% | Eintracht Frankfurt 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 71% | xG FC Augsburg 1.81 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 1.037 / def 1.112 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.192 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.697 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 16 January 2022 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
FC Augsburg 1 - 1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 38% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (1 meetings): FC Augsburg 0W | Draws 1 | Eintracht Frankfurt 0W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (1.04) and Eintracht Frankfurt's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
38%
2.61
25%
3.97
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.57
1.76
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.43
Clean Sheet
17%
5.84
16%
6.10
Win to Nil
7%
15.23
6%
16.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.76 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Augsburg's recent record stands at 14W 12D 26L from 52 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 23W 18D 11L across 52 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Eintracht Frankfurt by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Augsburg heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Augsburg have managed 9W 6D 10L from 25 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 9W 7D 9L across 25 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.88 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt in 81%.
Last 52 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 14W 12D 26L in their last 52 games (1.04 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 23W 18D 11L in their last 52 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.32 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Augsburg's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FC Augsburg
6
Draws
3
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 1, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when FC Augsburg 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Augsburg at 60%, Eintracht Frankfurt at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for FC Augsburg and 68% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of FC Augsburg's games and 76% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of FC Augsburg's matches and 68% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 19, as FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.81 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.76 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC Augsburg fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 1.04 / defence 1.11 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.19 / defence 1.03, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 38% | Draw 25% | Eintracht Frankfurt 37%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 48%, Eintracht Frankfurt 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.