FC Augsburg 1-1 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Augsburg at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga (matchday 27). Kick-off: Sunday 31 March 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Current Form
FC Augsburg's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1. FC Köln (all games): 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, 1. FC Köln have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. FC Augsburg's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of 1. FC Köln's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, 1. FC Köln edge it 4 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended FC Augsburg 1–1 1. FC Köln — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
1. FC Köln — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 65% and 1. FC Köln 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 58% | 1. FC Köln 43%). Note also that 1. FC Köln surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while FC Augsburg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.61 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.968 / defence 0.938 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.836 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.403. Data: built from FC Augsburg's last 60 games and 1. FC Köln's last 60.
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 47% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Köln 24%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.12 | Draw 3.44 | 1. FC Köln 4.21. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FC Augsburg's last 10 home games and 1. FC Köln's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Augsburg 80% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Köln 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 27 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 March 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 47% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Köln 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG FC Augsburg 1.61 / 1. FC Köln 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.968 / def 0.938 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.836 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.602 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.10
1. FC Köln xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln FAQs
What time does FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 31 March 2024 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln?
FC Augsburg 1 - 1 1. FC Köln.
Where is FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln part of?
FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 27) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 47% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.97x the league average against 1. FC Köln's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Köln's attack (0.84x) against FC Augsburg's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from FC Augsburg's last 60 games and 1. FC Köln's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
47%
2.12
29%
3.44
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.72
1.10
1. FC Köln xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
5%
21.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.8 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.10 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Augsburg come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 15D 27L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, 1. FC Köln sit at 1.00 PPG from 60 outings (13W 21D 26L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.00 for 1. FC Köln. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC Augsburg's home form reads 11W 9D 10L across their last 30 home games, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Köln have taken 0.93 points per game from their last 30 away games (5W 13D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Augsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.15 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
FC Augsburg (Home) vs 1. FC Köln (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Augsburg
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
❓ FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln Form FAQs
What form are FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 18W 15D 27L in their last 60 games (1.15 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 13W 21D 26L in their last 60 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or 1. FC Köln away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.40 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 27 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Köln won FC Augsburg 1-4 1. FC Köln on 30 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Augsburg
3
Draws
4
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Augsburg have won 3, 1. FC Köln have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 February 2026: FC Augsburg 2-0 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 63%, 1. FC Köln 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (FC Augsburg) and 43% (1. FC Köln).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of FC Augsburg's games and 60% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 43% of 1. FC Köln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 67% of 1. FC Köln's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 27, as FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.61 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.10 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.97 / defence 0.94 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.84 / defence 1.04, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 47% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Köln 24%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 58%, 1. FC Köln 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.15 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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