Eintracht Frankfurt 2-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 54%, yet in-form SC Freiburg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt host SC Freiburg at Deutsche Bank Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 May 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 5W 4D 1L at Deutsche Bank Park — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Eintracht Frankfurt are significantly better at Deutsche Bank Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
SC Freiburg's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SC Freiburg are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 1, SC Freiburg 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
SC Freiburg trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 66% and SC Freiburg 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 52% | SC Freiburg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.76 xG and SC Freiburg 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.949 / defence 0.754 | SC Freiburg attack 0.996 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.826 / away 1.302. Eintracht Frankfurt's defence rating of 0.754 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 67 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 67 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 54% | Draw 28% | SC Freiburg 19%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | SC Freiburg 5.26. Eintracht Frankfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SC Freiburg (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 60% | SC Freiburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 54% | Draw 28% | SC Freiburg 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.76 / SC Freiburg 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.949 / def 0.754 | SC Freiburg attack 0.996 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.826 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
0.98
SC Freiburg xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 27 May 2023 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Eintracht Frankfurt 2 - 1 SC Freiburg.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 54% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg?
Record (3 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 1W | Draws 1 | SC Freiburg 1W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Eintracht Frankfurt's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against SC Freiburg's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
54%
1.87
28%
3.58
19%
5.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
2.74
0.98
SC Freiburg xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
5.40
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
3%
31.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.1 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 0.98 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Frankfurt come into this having played 67 games, going 22W 23D 22L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, SC Freiburg sit at 1.70 PPG from 67 outings (32W 18D 17L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.33 PPG, SC Freiburg on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Eintracht Frankfurt's home form reads 12W 12D 9L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Freiburg have taken 1.55 points per game from 33 outings (14W 9D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.61 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Current Season
SC Freiburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 22W 23D 22L in their last 67 games (1.33 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 32W 18D 17L in their last 67 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or SC Freiburg away?
SC Freiburg's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.45 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Eintracht Frankfurt or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eintracht Frankfurt have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2025, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Eintracht Frankfurt
4
Draws
1
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 5, SC Freiburg have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 61%, SC Freiburg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 58% (SC Freiburg).
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 39%; SC Freiburg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play SC Freiburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 52% of SC Freiburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent games and 58% of SC Freiburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Eintracht Frankfurt edge out SC Freiburg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat SC Freiburg 2-1 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.76 xG and SC Freiburg 0.98 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.95 / defence 0.75 against SC Freiburg attack 1.00 / defence 1.02, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 54% | Draw 28% | SC Freiburg 19%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 52%, SC Freiburg 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.33 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.