Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 8 as Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome VfB Stuttgart to Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Borussia Mönchengladbach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfB Stuttgart stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Borussia Mönchengladbach at 1.30 PPG versus VfB Stuttgart's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Borussia Mönchengladbach trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 68% and VfB Stuttgart 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 68% | VfB Stuttgart 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.76 xG and VfB Stuttgart 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.059 / defence 0.800 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.793 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.232. Data: 41 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 41 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 58% | Draw 28% | VfB Stuttgart 14%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.72 | Draw 3.57 | VfB Stuttgart 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Mönchengladbach (58%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% | VfB Stuttgart 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 58% | Draw 28% | VfB Stuttgart 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.76 / VfB Stuttgart 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.059 / def 0.800 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.793 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
0.78
VfB Stuttgart xG
47%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1 - 1 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 58% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 14% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against VfB Stuttgart's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.2%), 2-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
58%
1.72
28%
3.57
14%
7.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
2.54
0.78
VfB Stuttgart xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
7.27
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
2%
42.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 10.8 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 0.78 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record stands at 16W 11D 14L from 41 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VfB Stuttgart, meanwhile, have gone 14W 11D 16L across 41 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-D-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.44 PPG, VfB Stuttgart on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed 10W 5D 5L from 20 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VfB Stuttgart's away record stands at 7W 5D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.66 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 68%.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Early Season
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 16W 11D 14L in their last 41 games (1.44 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 14W 11D 16L in their last 41 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.75 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: VfB Stuttgart have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 May 2024, when VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
Draws
6
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, VfB Stuttgart have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-3 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Borussia Mönchengladbach at 70%, VfB Stuttgart at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 60% (VfB Stuttgart). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 60% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 60% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart finished level at 1-1 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.76 xG and VfB Stuttgart 0.78 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.06 / defence 0.80 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.79 / defence 0.97, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 58% | Draw 28% | VfB Stuttgart 14%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 68%, VfB Stuttgart 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.44 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.