Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-3 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 42%, yet in-form VfB Stuttgart provide a compelling counter-argument — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 3 as Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome VfB Stuttgart to BORUSSIA-PARK. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 September 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Borussia Mönchengladbach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at BORUSSIA-PARK, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfB Stuttgart stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour VfB Stuttgart — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Borussia Mönchengladbach register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, VfB Stuttgart in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 2, VfB Stuttgart 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2024, ended 0–4 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Borussia Mönchengladbach trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 72% and VfB Stuttgart 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Mönchengladbach 75% | VfB Stuttgart 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.80 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.020 / defence 1.137 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.976 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.430. Data: 36 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 36 VfB Stuttgart games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 42% | Draw 25% | VfB Stuttgart 33%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | VfB Stuttgart 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form VfB Stuttgart (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% | VfB Stuttgart 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 42% | Draw 25% | VfB Stuttgart 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 68% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.80 / VfB Stuttgart 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.020 / def 1.137 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.976 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.59
VfB Stuttgart xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1 - 3 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 42% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (6 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 2W | Draws 1 | VfB Stuttgart 3W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against VfB Stuttgart's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
42%
2.40
25%
3.94
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.38
1.59
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.10
Clean Sheet
20%
4.88
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
9%
11.71
5%
18.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.7 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.59 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record stands at 8W 13D 15L from 36 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VfB Stuttgart, meanwhile, have gone 23W 5D 8L across 36 games — 2.06 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours VfB Stuttgart by 1.03 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Borussia Mönchengladbach heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed 5W 6D 7L from 18 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VfB Stuttgart's away record stands at 10W 1D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 2.28 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Early Season
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 8W 13D 15L in their last 36 games (1.03 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 23W 5D 8L in their last 36 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
VfB Stuttgart's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.17 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Borussia Mönchengladbach or VfB Stuttgart been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, VfB Stuttgart in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: VfB Stuttgart have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 May 2024, when VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
Draws
6
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, VfB Stuttgart have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-3 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 67%, VfB Stuttgart 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 72% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 56% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 72% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Borussia Mönchengladbach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-3 at BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.80 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.59 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart outscored their 1.59 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.02 / defence 1.14 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.98 / defence 1.03, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 42% | Draw 25% | VfB Stuttgart 33%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual VfB Stuttgart win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 75%, VfB Stuttgart 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.