Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 27 as Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome SC Freiburg to Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 April 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Borussia Mönchengladbach) versus 1.40 (SC Freiburg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
SC Freiburg in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 73% and SC Freiburg 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 62% | SC Freiburg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.29 xG and SC Freiburg 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.955 / defence 1.191 | SC Freiburg attack 0.716 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.342. Data: 26 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 26 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 39% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 31%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | SC Freiburg 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Mönchengladbach at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 80% | SC Freiburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Apr 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 39% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.29 / SC Freiburg 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.955 / def 1.191 | SC Freiburg attack 0.716 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.15
SC Freiburg xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 3 April 2021 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 2 - 1 SC Freiburg.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 39% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against SC Freiburg's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
39%
2.60
30%
3.33
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
2.44
1.15
SC Freiburg xG
2.60
39%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
12%
8.16
9%
11.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.15 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, Borussia Mönchengladbach have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 9W 9D 8L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg's form line: 10W 7D 9L from 26 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.38 PPG, SC Freiburg on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 1.50 PPG from 12 outings (5W 3D 4L).
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 3D 5L from 12 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 9W 9D 8L in their last 26 games (1.38 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 10W 7D 9L in their last 26 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or SC Freiburg away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.50 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2021, when SC Freiburg won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
5
Draws
5
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, SC Freiburg have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when SC Freiburg 2-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SC Freiburg see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 75%, SC Freiburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 58% (SC Freiburg).
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play SC Freiburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 50% of SC Freiburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent games and 58% of SC Freiburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Borussia Mönchengladbach edge out SC Freiburg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat SC Freiburg 2-1 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 27, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.29 xG and SC Freiburg 1.15 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.95 / defence 1.19 against SC Freiburg attack 0.72 / defence 1.13, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 39% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 31%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 62%, SC Freiburg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.38 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Mönchengladbach win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.