Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hertha BSC meet at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 December 2020 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Borussia Mönchengladbach have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 2W 3D 0L this season (5 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hertha BSC's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC's away record: 2W 1D 2L from 5 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Borussia Mönchengladbach's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Hertha BSC's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Hertha BSC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Borussia Mönchengladbach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Hertha BSC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 80% and Hertha BSC 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% | Hertha BSC 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.27 xG and Hertha BSC 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.974 / defence 0.926 | Hertha BSC attack 0.994 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.618. Data: 10 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 10 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 29% | Draw 32% | Hertha BSC 39%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Hertha BSC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Borussia Mönchengladbach (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 80% | Hertha BSC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 29% | Draw 32% | Hertha BSC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 59% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.27 / Hertha BSC 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.974 / def 0.926 | Hertha BSC attack 0.994 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.618 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Hertha BSC xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hertha BSC kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 12 December 2020 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hertha BSC?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1 - 1 Hertha BSC.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hertha BSC part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 29% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hertha BSC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hertha BSC in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Hertha BSC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Hertha BSC's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Hertha BSC's attack (0.99x) against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
29%
3.47
32%
3.08
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
2.76
1.49
Hertha BSC xG
3.47
29%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
7%
15.37
11%
9.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.49 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 10 outings, Borussia Mönchengladbach have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 4W 4D 2L record — W-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hertha BSC's form line: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games, 1.10 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hertha BSC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 1.80 PPG from 5 outings (2W 3D 0L).
On the road, Hertha BSC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.80 scored and 1.90 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Hertha BSC in 70%.
Last 10 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 games (1.60 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or Hertha BSC away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.80 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hertha BSC won 4-1 on 12 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Borussia Mönchengladbach
2
Draws
2
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 2, Hertha BSC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2023, when Hertha BSC 4-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Borussia Mönchengladbach see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 60% for Hertha BSC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 80% (Hertha BSC).
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 60% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent games and 80% of Hertha BSC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hertha BSC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 11, as Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hertha BSC drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.27 xG and Hertha BSC 1.49 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.97 / defence 0.93 against Hertha BSC attack 0.99 / defence 0.99, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 29% | Draw 32% | Hertha BSC 39%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 60%, Hertha BSC 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Mönchengladbach arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.