Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees FSV Mainz 05 travel to Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK to take on Borussia Mönchengladbach. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 February 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FSV Mainz 05 — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FSV Mainz 05 away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
FSV Mainz 05 in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 76% and FSV Mainz 05 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 57% | FSV Mainz 05 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.91 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.130 / defence 1.118 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.737 / defence 1.429. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.448. FSV Mainz 05 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.429 — this is suppressing Borussia Mönchengladbach's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 21 FSV Mainz 05 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 53% | Draw 25% | FSV Mainz 05 22%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | FSV Mainz 05 4.55. Borussia Mönchengladbach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 80% | FSV Mainz 05 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 53% | Draw 25% | FSV Mainz 05 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.91 / FSV Mainz 05 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.130 / def 1.118 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.737 / def 1.429 | league avg home 1.183 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.19
FSV Mainz 05 xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 20 February 2021 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1 - 2 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 53% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack at 1.13x the league average against FSV Mainz 05's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FSV Mainz 05's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
53%
1.90
25%
3.98
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.10
1.19
FSV Mainz 05 xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
15%
6.76
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
3%
30.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.19 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Mönchengladbach come into this having played 21 games, going 8W 9D 4L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FSV Mainz 05 sit at 0.67 PPG from 21 outings (3W 5D 13L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Mönchengladbach carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of FSV Mainz 05 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home form reads 5W 3D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, FSV Mainz 05 have taken 0.60 points per game from 10 outings (1W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 8W 9D 4L in their last 21 games (1.57 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 3W 5D 13L in their last 21 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.80 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2023, when FSV Mainz 05 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting FSV Mainz 05 specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
6
Draws
3
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 1, FSV Mainz 05 have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Borussia Mönchengladbach at 80%, FSV Mainz 05 at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 70% for FSV Mainz 05. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play FSV Mainz 05?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 70% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 70% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FSV Mainz 05 defy the odds to beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.91 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.19 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach fell 0.9 short of their projected output. FSV Mainz 05 outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.13 / defence 1.12 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.74 / defence 1.43, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 53% | Draw 25% | FSV Mainz 05 22%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a FSV Mainz 05 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 57%, FSV Mainz 05 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Mönchengladbach arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with FSV Mainz 05 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.