Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-3 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt make the trip to Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK to face Borussia Mönchengladbach in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 October 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Borussia Mönchengladbach have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK than their overall form suggests.
Eintracht Frankfurt (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 1.70 for Eintracht Frankfurt — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W, Eintracht Frankfurt 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Borussia Mönchengladbach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Eintracht Frankfurt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 68% and Eintracht Frankfurt 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 61% | Eintracht Frankfurt 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.49 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.226 / defence 0.854 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.083 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.786 / away 1.361. Data: 44 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 44 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 64% | Draw 19% | Eintracht Frankfurt 17%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.56 | Draw 5.26 | Eintracht Frankfurt 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Mönchengladbach (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.49 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% | Eintracht Frankfurt 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 64% | Draw 19% | Eintracht Frankfurt 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 66% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.49 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.226 / def 0.854 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.083 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.786 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
66%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1 - 3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 64% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 17% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (2 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W | Draws 1 | Eintracht Frankfurt 1W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack at 1.23x the league average against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Eintracht Frankfurt's attack (1.08x) against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.4%), 3-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
64%
1.57
19%
5.29
17%
5.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.75
1.26
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.29
19%
Draw
5.77
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
8%
12.03
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
1%
69.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.26 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record stands at 16W 13D 15L from 44 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 15W 14D 15L across 44 games — 1.34 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Borussia Mönchengladbach against 1.34 for Eintracht Frankfurt. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed 12W 3D 6L from 21 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Borussia Mönchengladbach are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 8W 6D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 64%.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 16W 13D 15L in their last 44 games (1.39 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 15W 14D 15L in their last 44 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.86 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Eintracht Frankfurt have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Eintracht Frankfurt won 3-0 on 14 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Eintracht Frankfurt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
4
Draws
6
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 3-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 67% for Eintracht Frankfurt — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 52% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 67% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 52% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Borussia Mönchengladbach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-3 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.49 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.26 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Eintracht Frankfurt outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.23 / defence 0.85 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.08 / defence 1.14, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 64% | Draw 19% | Eintracht Frankfurt 17%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Eintracht Frankfurt win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 61%, Eintracht Frankfurt 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.39 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.