Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
BORUSSIA-PARK plays host to Borussia Mönchengladbach versus Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Borussia Mönchengladbach have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 5W 3D 2L at BORUSSIA-PARK — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at BORUSSIA-PARK than their overall form suggests.
Borussia Dortmund (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Borussia Dortmund's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Borussia Dortmund are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2W, Borussia Dortmund 3W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 2–4 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Borussia Mönchengladbach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Borussia Dortmund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 66% and Borussia Dortmund 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Mönchengladbach 69% | Borussia Dortmund 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.04 xG and Borussia Dortmund 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.065 / defence 1.212 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.185 / defence 0.602. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.422. Borussia Dortmund's defence strength of 0.602 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 62 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 62 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 17% | Draw 24% | Borussia Dortmund 59%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 5.88 | Draw 4.17 | Borussia Dortmund 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% | Borussia Dortmund 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 17% | Draw 24% | Borussia Dortmund 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 58% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.04 / Borussia Dortmund 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.065 / def 1.212 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.185 / def 0.602 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Borussia Dortmund xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1 - 2 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 17% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 59% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (5 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 2W | Draws 0 | Borussia Dortmund 3W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Borussia Dortmund's defensive record (0.60x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — Borussia Dortmund's attack (1.19x) against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 2.04.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
17%
5.86
24%
4.18
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.08
2.04
Borussia Dortmund xG
5.86
17%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
13%
7.71
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
2%
45.22
21%
4.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 2.04 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record stands at 18W 20D 24L from 62 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-W in the last five.
Borussia Dortmund, meanwhile, have gone 37W 13D 12L across 62 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Borussia Dortmund by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Borussia Mönchengladbach heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed 15W 7D 9L from 31 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Borussia Mönchengladbach are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Borussia Dortmund's away record stands at 15W 9D 7L across 31 trips, a 1.74 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.23 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Current Season
Borussia Dortmund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 18W 20D 24L in their last 62 games (1.19 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 37W 13D 12L in their last 62 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.68 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Borussia Mönchengladbach or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Dortmund won 6-0 on 20 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Borussia Dortmund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
Draws
6
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, Borussia Dortmund have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 55%, Borussia Dortmund 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 55% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund in 32%; Borussia Mönchengladbach have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 58% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 55% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Borussia Dortmund edge out Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2 at BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.04 xG and Borussia Dortmund 2.04 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.06 / defence 1.21 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.19 / defence 0.60, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 17% | Draw 24% | Borussia Dortmund 59%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 69%, Borussia Dortmund 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.