Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bayer Leverkusen at 41%, yet in-form Borussia Mönchengladbach provide a compelling counter-argument — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Borussia Mönchengladbach host Bayer Leverkusen at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 March 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bayer Leverkusen — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Bayer Leverkusen in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 78% and Bayer Leverkusen 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 61% | Bayer Leverkusen 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.24 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.049 / defence 1.198 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.865 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.413. Data: 23 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 23 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 31% | Draw 28% | Bayer Leverkusen 41%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayer Leverkusen are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Borussia Mönchengladbach (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 80% | Bayer Leverkusen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 31% | Draw 28% | Bayer Leverkusen 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.24 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.049 / def 1.198 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.865 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.413 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Bayer Leverkusen xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 6 March 2021 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 31% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack rating (1.05) and Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
31%
3.27
28%
3.52
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
2.70
1.46
Bayer Leverkusen xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
7%
14.15
12%
8.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.46 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Mönchengladbach come into this having played 23 games, going 8W 9D 6L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bayer Leverkusen sit at 1.61 PPG from 23 outings (10W 7D 6L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.43 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home form reads 5W 3D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Bayer Leverkusen have taken 1.64 points per game from 11 outings (5W 3D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 1.78 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Bayer Leverkusen in 65%.
Last 23 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 8W 9D 6L in their last 23 games (1.43 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 10W 7D 6L in their last 23 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.64 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2021, when Bayer Leverkusen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting Bayer Leverkusen specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
4
Draws
6
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 82%, Bayer Leverkusen 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 46% (Bayer Leverkusen).
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen in 36%; Bayer Leverkusen in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 46% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent games and 46% of Bayer Leverkusen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bayer Leverkusen edge out Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-1 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.24 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.46 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Borussia Mönchengladbach fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.05 / defence 1.20 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.86 / defence 0.99, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 31% | Draw 28% | Bayer Leverkusen 41%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 61%, Bayer Leverkusen 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.43 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bayer Leverkusen win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.