Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bayer Leverkusen at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees SC Paderborn 07 travel to BayArena to take on Bayer Leverkusen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 November 2026, 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Bayer Leverkusen — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Bayer Leverkusen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bayer Leverkusen's home record at BayArena: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Paderborn 07's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bayer Leverkusen 1.50 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Bayer Leverkusen in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayer Leverkusen 66% and SC Paderborn 07 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 60% | SC Paderborn 07 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 1.87 xG and SC Paderborn 07 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.077 / defence 0.990 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.684 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.939 / away 1.339. Data: 35 Bayer Leverkusen games / 1 SC Paderborn 07 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 59% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 17%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | SC Paderborn 07 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bayer Leverkusen 70% | SC Paderborn 07 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 59% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 51% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 1.87 / SC Paderborn 07 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.077 / def 0.990 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.684 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.939 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
0.91
SC Paderborn 07 xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07 is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at BayArena.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 59% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and SC Paderborn 07?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bayer Leverkusen's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus Bayer Leverkusen's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
59%
1.69
24%
4.14
17%
5.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
2.78
0.91
SC Paderborn 07 xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
5.97
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
15%
6.51
Win to Nil
24%
4.19
3%
38.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 10.5 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 0.91 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bayer Leverkusen come into this having played 35 games, going 17W 8D 10L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.80 PPG from 35 outings (18W 9D 8L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bayer Leverkusen on 1.69 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 on 1.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bayer Leverkusen's home form reads 9W 4D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.71 points per game from 17 outings (8W 5D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.66 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; SC Paderborn 07 in 63%.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Early Season
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 17W 8D 10L in their last 35 games (1.69 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 18W 9D 8L in their last 35 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 1.82 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Bayer Leverkusen or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bayer Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 31%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayer Leverkusen 65%, SC Paderborn 07 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Bayer Leverkusen) and 47% (SC Paderborn 07).
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; SC Paderborn 07 in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Bayer Leverkusen's games and 47% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Bayer Leverkusen's recent games and 47% of SC Paderborn 07's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.