Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
BayArena plays host to Bayer Leverkusen versus SC Freiburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 8W 1D 1L at BayArena — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SC Freiburg (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Bayer Leverkusen's favour (2.30 vs 1.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Bayer Leverkusen 1W, SC Freiburg 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
SC Freiburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bayer Leverkusen 55% versus SC Freiburg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 71% | SC Freiburg 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 2.50 xG and SC Freiburg 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.303 / defence 0.890 | SC Freiburg attack 0.719 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 2.001 / away 1.535. Bayer Leverkusen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.303 — their λ of 2.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 Bayer Leverkusen games / 42 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 70% | Draw 17% | SC Freiburg 13%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.43 | Draw 5.88 | SC Freiburg 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (70%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayer Leverkusen at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.48 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bayer Leverkusen 80% | SC Freiburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 70% | Draw 17% | SC Freiburg 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 58% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 2.50 / SC Freiburg 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.303 / def 0.890 | SC Freiburg attack 0.719 / def 0.959 | league avg home 2.001 / away 1.535 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.50
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
0.98
SC Freiburg xG
58%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
Bayer Leverkusen 2 - 1 SC Freiburg.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 70% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 13% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg?
Record (4 meetings): Bayer Leverkusen 1W | Draws 1 | SC Freiburg 2W.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bayer Leverkusen's attack at 1.30x the league average against SC Freiburg's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 2.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (0.72x) against Bayer Leverkusen's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-1 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
70%
1.43
17%
5.77
13%
7.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
3 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.50
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
3.48
0.98
SC Freiburg xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.77
17%
Draw
7.98
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
8%
12.18
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
1%
97.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.50 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 0.98 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bayer Leverkusen's recent record stands at 21W 9D 12L from 42 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg, meanwhile, have gone 21W 9D 12L across 42 games — 1.71 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Bayer Leverkusen against 1.71 for SC Freiburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bayer Leverkusen have managed 12W 3D 6L from 21 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Freiburg's away record stands at 8W 5D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.43 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: SC Freiburg in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 21W 9D 12L in their last 42 games (1.71 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 21W 9D 12L in their last 42 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or SC Freiburg away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 1.86 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Bayer Leverkusen or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bayer Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 5-1 on 21 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bayer Leverkusen
3
Draws
2
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 5, SC Freiburg have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when SC Freiburg 3-3 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayer Leverkusen 62%, SC Freiburg 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Bayer Leverkusen and 62% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 38%; SC Freiburg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Bayer Leverkusen's recent matches and 43% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 62% of SC Freiburg's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bayer Leverkusen edge out SC Freiburg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat SC Freiburg 2-1 at BayArena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 2.50 xG and SC Freiburg 0.98 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.30 / defence 0.89 against SC Freiburg attack 0.72 / defence 0.96, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 70% | Draw 17% | SC Freiburg 13%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 71%, SC Freiburg 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bayer Leverkusen 1.71 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bayer Leverkusen win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.