1899 Hoffenheim 2-1 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1899 Hoffenheim host VfB Stuttgart at PreZero Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 25 February 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at PreZero Arena, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — 1899 Hoffenheim are significantly better at PreZero Arena than their overall form suggests.
VfB Stuttgart — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
1899 Hoffenheim are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for 1899 Hoffenheim, 1 for VfB Stuttgart and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 1–3 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
1899 Hoffenheim in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
VfB Stuttgart in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1899 Hoffenheim 65% and VfB Stuttgart 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1899 Hoffenheim 67% | VfB Stuttgart 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 2.10 xG and VfB Stuttgart 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.184 / defence 0.888 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.749 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.777 / away 1.405. Data: 57 1899 Hoffenheim games / 57 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 63% | Draw 23% | VfB Stuttgart 14%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | VfB Stuttgart 7.14. The model has a clear lean to 1899 Hoffenheim (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1899 Hoffenheim are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: 1899 Hoffenheim 50% | VfB Stuttgart 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Friday 25 Feb 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 63% | Draw 23% | VfB Stuttgart 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 55% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 2.10 / VfB Stuttgart 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.184 / def 0.888 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.749 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.777 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
0.93
VfB Stuttgart xG
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 25 February 2022 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
1899 Hoffenheim 2 - 1 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 63% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (1 meetings): 1899 Hoffenheim 0W | Draws 0 | VfB Stuttgart 1W.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart in?
1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
1899 Hoffenheim's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against VfB Stuttgart's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.10. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus 1899 Hoffenheim's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
63%
1.59
23%
4.38
14%
6.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
3.03
0.93
VfB Stuttgart xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
6.92
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
12%
8.13
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
2%
56.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 0.93 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, 1899 Hoffenheim have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 22W 14D 21L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfB Stuttgart's form line: 16W 16D 25L from 57 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.40 PPG, VfB Stuttgart on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 1.79 PPG from 28 outings (15W 5D 8L).
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 8W 7D 13L from 28 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1899 Hoffenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.46 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 65%.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 22W 14D 21L in their last 57 games (1.40 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 16W 16D 25L in their last 57 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
1899 Hoffenheim's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.79 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2024, when VfB Stuttgart won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1899 Hoffenheim's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
1899 Hoffenheim
6
Draws
2
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 3-3 VfB Stuttgart.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1899 Hoffenheim 61%, VfB Stuttgart 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for 1899 Hoffenheim and 54% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 57% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of 1899 Hoffenheim's matches and 54% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1899 Hoffenheim edge out VfB Stuttgart 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1899 Hoffenheim beat VfB Stuttgart 2-1 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 2.10 xG and VfB Stuttgart 0.93 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.18 / defence 0.89 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.75 / defence 1.00, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 63% | Draw 23% | VfB Stuttgart 14%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 67%, VfB Stuttgart 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.40 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1899 Hoffenheim win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.