1899 Hoffenheim 0-1 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 49%, yet in-form Union Berlin provide a compelling counter-argument — this 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1899 Hoffenheim host Union Berlin at PreZero Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 February 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
1899 Hoffenheim — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 2W 4D 4L at PreZero Arena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union Berlin stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Union Berlin's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of 1899 Hoffenheim's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for 1899 Hoffenheim, 2 for Union Berlin and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 2–0 with 1899 Hoffenheim winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
1899 Hoffenheim in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Union Berlin in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1899 Hoffenheim 76% and Union Berlin 44% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1899 Hoffenheim 67% | Union Berlin 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 1.62 xG and Union Berlin 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.990 / defence 1.288 | Union Berlin attack 0.651 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.216. Data: 55 1899 Hoffenheim games / 55 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 49% | Draw 29% | Union Berlin 22%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Union Berlin 4.55. 1899 Hoffenheim hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1899 Hoffenheim at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Union Berlin (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1899 Hoffenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1899 Hoffenheim 100% | Union Berlin 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 49% | Draw 29% | Union Berlin 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 1.62 / Union Berlin 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.990 / def 1.288 | Union Berlin attack 0.651 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Union Berlin xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin?
1899 Hoffenheim 0 - 1 Union Berlin.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 49% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and Union Berlin?
Record (5 meetings): 1899 Hoffenheim 2W | Draws 1 | Union Berlin 2W.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and Union Berlin in?
1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates 1899 Hoffenheim's attack at 0.99x the league average against Union Berlin's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus 1899 Hoffenheim's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
49%
2.02
29%
3.46
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
2.64
1.02
Union Berlin xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
4%
23.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.8 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.02 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, 1899 Hoffenheim have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 17W 12D 26L record — L-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin's form line: 24W 11D 20L from 55 games, 1.51 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.15 PPG, Union Berlin on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 1.22 PPG from 27 outings (9W 6D 12L).
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 8W 3D 16L from 27 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.51 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's season.
Goals in Recent Form
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.29 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 17W 12D 26L in their last 55 games (1.15 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 24W 11D 20L in their last 55 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or Union Berlin away?
1899 Hoffenheim's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.22 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.00 PPG.
Have 1899 Hoffenheim or Union Berlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
1899 Hoffenheim have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Union Berlin in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
1899 Hoffenheim go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Feb 2025, when Union Berlin won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1899 Hoffenheim's record when hosting Union Berlin specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
1899 Hoffenheim
1
Draws
5
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 4, Union Berlin have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 3-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1899 Hoffenheim 82%, Union Berlin 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for 1899 Hoffenheim and 52% for Union Berlin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 44% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of 1899 Hoffenheim's matches and 52% of Union Berlin's.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and Union Berlin tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union Berlin defy the odds to beat 1899 Hoffenheim 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat 1899 Hoffenheim 0-1 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 1.62 xG and Union Berlin 1.02 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. 1899 Hoffenheim fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.99 / defence 1.29 against Union Berlin attack 0.65 / defence 0.99, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 49% | Draw 29% | Union Berlin 22%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Union Berlin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 67%, Union Berlin 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Union Berlin's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.15 PPG, Union Berlin 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.