1899 Hoffenheim 1-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Borussia Mönchengladbach make the trip to PreZero Arena to face 1899 Hoffenheim in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 December 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
1899 Hoffenheim (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1899 Hoffenheim at PreZero Arena this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — 1899 Hoffenheim are significantly better at PreZero Arena than their overall form suggests.
Borussia Mönchengladbach have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward 1899 Hoffenheim. A 0.80 PPG lead over Borussia Mönchengladbach (1.90 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
1899 Hoffenheim — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Borussia Mönchengladbach — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1899 Hoffenheim 64% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1899 Hoffenheim 68% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 2.68 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.236 / defence 0.876 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.871 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.777 / away 1.331. Borussia Mönchengladbach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing 1899 Hoffenheim's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 1899 Hoffenheim games / 50 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 71% | Draw 18% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 10%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.41 | Draw 5.56 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 10.00. The model has a clear lean to 1899 Hoffenheim (71%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.68 / 1.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1899 Hoffenheim at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1899 Hoffenheim 60% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 71% | Draw 18% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 61% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 2.68 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.236 / def 0.876 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.871 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.777 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.68
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
61%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
1899 Hoffenheim 1 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 71% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 10% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from 1899 Hoffenheim's attack rating (1.24) and Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 2.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack (0.87x) against 1899 Hoffenheim's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.9%), 3-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
71%
1.40
18%
5.46
10%
9.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.68
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
3.70
1.01
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
1.40
71%
Home win
5.46
18%
Draw
9.59
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
7%
14.63
Win to Nil
26%
3.87
1%
140.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 2.68 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.01 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 3.70.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, 1899 Hoffenheim have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 19W 13D 18L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form line: 18W 13D 19L from 50 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for 1899 Hoffenheim against 1.34 for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 1.79 PPG from 24 outings (13W 4D 7L).
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 6W 7D 11L from 24 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1899 Hoffenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.70 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Borussia Mönchengladbach in 68%.
Last 50 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 19W 13D 18L in their last 50 games (1.40 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 18W 13D 19L in their last 50 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
1899 Hoffenheim's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.79 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Mönchengladbach won 5-1 on 14 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Borussia Mönchengladbach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
1899 Hoffenheim
2
Draws
6
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-0 1899 Hoffenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1899 Hoffenheim 58%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for 1899 Hoffenheim and 75% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 71% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of 1899 Hoffenheim's matches and 75% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1899 Hoffenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1899 Hoffenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach finished level at 1-1 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 2.68 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.01 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.24 / defence 0.88 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.87 / defence 1.22, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 71% | Draw 18% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 10%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 68%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.40 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.