1899 Hoffenheim 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 20 as 1899 Hoffenheim welcome Bayer Leverkusen to PreZero Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 February 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1899 Hoffenheim at PreZero Arena this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — 1899 Hoffenheim are significantly better at PreZero Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bayer Leverkusen stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bayer Leverkusen — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 1, Bayer Leverkusen 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 3–0 with 1899 Hoffenheim winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
1899 Hoffenheim trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Bayer Leverkusen trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1899 Hoffenheim 62% and Bayer Leverkusen 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1899 Hoffenheim 68% | Bayer Leverkusen 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 1.52 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.814 / defence 1.318 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.013 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.889 / away 1.355. Data: 53 1899 Hoffenheim games / 53 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 31% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 43%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1899 Hoffenheim 70% | Bayer Leverkusen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 31% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 1.52 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.814 / def 1.318 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.013 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.889 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Bayer Leverkusen xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
1899 Hoffenheim 1 - 3 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 31% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (3 meetings): 1899 Hoffenheim 1W | Draws 1 | Bayer Leverkusen 1W.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen in?
1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1899 Hoffenheim's attack at 0.81x the league average against Bayer Leverkusen's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus 1899 Hoffenheim's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
31%
3.27
27%
3.75
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
3.33
1.81
Bayer Leverkusen xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
16%
6.11
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
5%
19.96
9%
10.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.8 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.81 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1899 Hoffenheim come into this having played 53 games, going 18W 11D 24L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bayer Leverkusen sit at 1.66 PPG from 53 outings (26W 10D 17L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of 1899 Hoffenheim — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
1899 Hoffenheim's home form reads 11W 5D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Bayer Leverkusen have taken 1.62 points per game from 26 outings (12W 6D 8L).
The Goals Picture
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.08 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 18W 11D 24L in their last 53 games (1.23 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 26W 10D 17L in their last 53 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.46 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: 1899 Hoffenheim have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2022, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1899 Hoffenheim's record when hosting Bayer Leverkusen specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
1899 Hoffenheim
1
Draws
6
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 3, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1899 Hoffenheim at 65%, Bayer Leverkusen at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for 1899 Hoffenheim and 69% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 69% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of 1899 Hoffenheim's matches and 69% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bayer Leverkusen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over 1899 Hoffenheim.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat 1899 Hoffenheim 1-3 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 1.52 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.81 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen outscored their 1.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.81 / defence 1.32 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.01 / defence 0.99, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 31% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 43%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 68%, Bayer Leverkusen 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.