1. FC Köln 2-0 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

1. FC Köln host Eintracht Frankfurt at Cologne Stadium in Bundesliga (matchday 20). Kick-off is Saturday 3 February 2024 at 17:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, 1. FC Köln have gone 1W 5D 4L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

In front of their own supporters, 1. FC Köln have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form points away from home here. Eintracht Frankfurt's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of 1. FC Köln's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of 1. FC Köln's games and 60% of Eintracht Frankfurt's (from 1. FC Köln's last 10 home games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for 1. FC Köln, 1 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 1. FC Köln 1–1 Eintracht Frankfurt — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

1. FC Köln in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

Eintracht Frankfurt in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Köln 55% versus Eintracht Frankfurt 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 45% | Eintracht Frankfurt 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: 1. FC Köln surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while Eintracht Frankfurt have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.07 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.663 / defence 1.149 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.026 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.690 / away 1.267. 1. FC Köln's attack rating of 0.663 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Data: built from 1. FC Köln's last 53 games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 53.

Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 25% | Draw 29% | Eintracht Frankfurt 45%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 3.94 | Draw 3.42 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2.20. Eintracht Frankfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Köln 60% (last 10 home games) | Eintracht Frankfurt 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights