SV Wehen 1-0 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hansa Rostock at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Wehen vs Hansa Rostock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
BRITA-Arena plays host to SV Wehen versus Hansa Rostock in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SV Wehen have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SV Wehen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SV Wehen have posted 2W 3D 1L at BRITA-Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game.
Hansa Rostock (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hansa Rostock away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
SV Wehen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games).
Hansa Rostock goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Wehen 50% versus Hansa Rostock 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Wehen 33% | Hansa Rostock 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Wehen 0.98 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Wehen attack 0.622 / defence 1.009 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.764 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.747 / away 1.341. SV Wehen's attack strength of 0.622 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 SV Wehen games / 44 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Wehen 32% | Draw 33% | Hansa Rostock 35%. Fair-value odds: SV Wehen 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Hansa Rostock 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hansa Rostock as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hansa Rostock if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: SV Wehen 50% | Hansa Rostock 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Wehen vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: BRITA-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Wehen 32% | Draw 33% | Hansa Rostock 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG SV Wehen 0.98 / Hansa Rostock 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: SV Wehen attack 0.622 / def 1.009 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.764 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.747 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
SV Wehen xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Hansa Rostock xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Wehen vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
SV Wehen vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at BRITA-Arena.
What was the final score in SV Wehen vs Hansa Rostock?
SV Wehen 1 - 0 Hansa Rostock.
Where is SV Wehen vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at BRITA-Arena.
What competition is SV Wehen vs Hansa Rostock part of?
SV Wehen vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Wehen vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives SV Wehen a 32% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Wehen vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both SV Wehen and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will SV Wehen vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Wehen and Hansa Rostock?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SV Wehen and Hansa Rostock in?
SV Wehen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SV Wehen's attack at 0.62x the league average against Hansa Rostock's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hansa Rostock's attack (0.76x) against SV Wehen's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 10/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
32%
3.11
33%
3.04
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
SV Wehen xG
Total xG
2.01
1.03
Hansa Rostock xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
11%
8.75
13%
7.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 13.8 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Wehen vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are SV Wehen and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for SV Wehen and 1.03 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Wehen vs Hansa Rostock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SV Wehen's recent record stands at 5W 3D 4L from 12 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for SV Wehen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hansa Rostock, meanwhile, have gone 5W 1D 6L across 12 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for SV Wehen against 1.33 for Hansa Rostock. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SV Wehen have managed 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hansa Rostock's away record stands at 1W 1D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hansa Rostock's season.
Attack vs Defence
SV Wehen are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 1.08 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 12 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Wehen
Blended
Hansa Rostock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Wehen and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
SV Wehen have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 games (1.50 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 5W 1D 6L in their last 12 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Wehen at home or Hansa Rostock away?
SV Wehen's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Wehen at home: 1.20 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 0.80 PPG.
Have SV Wehen or Hansa Rostock been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Wehen have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hansa Rostock in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SV Wehen
0
Draws
1
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Wehen and Hansa Rostock?
From 2 meetings on record, SV Wehen have won 1, Hansa Rostock have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Wehen and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2024, when Hansa Rostock 3-1 SV Wehen.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Wehen 60%, Hansa Rostock 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for SV Wehen and 40% for Hansa Rostock.
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Wehen home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Wehen play Hansa Rostock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of SV Wehen's recent matches and 40% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Wehen vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of SV Wehen's recent games and 40% of Hansa Rostock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Wehen and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
SV Wehen have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SV Wehen defy the odds to beat Hansa Rostock 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Wehen beat Hansa Rostock 1-0 at BRITA-Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Wehen 0.98 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.03 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hansa Rostock landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Wehen attack 0.62 / defence 1.01 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.76 / defence 0.90, drawn from 10/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Wehen 32% | Draw 33% | Hansa Rostock 35%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual SV Wehen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Wehen 33%, Hansa Rostock 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Wehen's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Wehen 1.50 PPG, Hansa Rostock 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Wehen win broke the near-deadlock. SV Wehen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.