SV Sandhausen 1-6 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Sandhausen vs SV Darmstadt 98 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98 make the trip to BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald to face SV Sandhausen in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 October 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SV Sandhausen have collected 0.88 PPG across 8 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.88 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SV Sandhausen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald, SV Sandhausen have gone 0W 1D 3L this season (4 games, 0.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.25 lags behind their overall 0.88 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald this season.
SV Darmstadt 98's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 1D 4L from 8 games (1.25 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.88 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98 away from home this season: 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 1.25 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.88 for SV Sandhausen, 1.25 for SV Darmstadt 98 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
SV Sandhausen half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
SV Darmstadt 98 half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Sandhausen 50% versus SV Darmstadt 98 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SV Sandhausen 62% | SV Darmstadt 98 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Sandhausen 0.97 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Sandhausen attack 0.591 / defence 1.324 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.745 / defence 1.516. League average goals — home 1.087 / away 1.431. SV Sandhausen's attack strength of 0.591 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SV Darmstadt 98 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.516 — this is suppressing SV Sandhausen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 SV Sandhausen games / 8 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 22% | Draw 35% | SV Darmstadt 98 43%. Fair-value odds: SV Sandhausen 4.55 | Draw 2.86 | SV Darmstadt 98 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SV Sandhausen 25% | SV Darmstadt 98 75%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Sandhausen vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 22% | Draw 35% | SV Darmstadt 98 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG SV Sandhausen 0.97 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: SV Sandhausen attack 0.591 / def 1.324 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.745 / def 1.516 | league avg home 1.087 / away 1.431 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
SV Sandhausen xG
Expected Goals
1.41
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Sandhausen vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
SV Sandhausen vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What was the final score in SV Sandhausen vs SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Sandhausen 1 - 6 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is SV Sandhausen vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What competition is SV Sandhausen vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
SV Sandhausen vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Sandhausen vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives SV Sandhausen a 22% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 43% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Sandhausen vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SV Sandhausen and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will SV Sandhausen vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and SV Darmstadt 98?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SV Sandhausen and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
SV Sandhausen (all comps): 2W-1D-5L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 1.75 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 3W-1D-4L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.88 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SV Sandhausen's attacking strength (0.59x league average) is weighed against SV Darmstadt 98's defensive record (1.52x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. Flip it around — SV Darmstadt 98's attack (0.74x) against SV Sandhausen's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
22%
4.50
35%
2.90
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
SV Sandhausen xG
Total xG
2.38
1.41
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
4.50
22%
Home win
2.90
35%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
5%
18.44
16%
6.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 13.0 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Sandhausen vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are SV Sandhausen and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for SV Sandhausen and 1.41 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Sandhausen vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SV Sandhausen's recent record stands at 2W 1D 5L from 8 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for SV Sandhausen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Darmstadt 98, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 4L across 8 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for SV Sandhausen against 1.25 for SV Darmstadt 98. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SV Sandhausen have managed 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — 0.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.88 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SV Darmstadt 98's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Sandhausen are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.88 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 8 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Sandhausen
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Sandhausen and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
SV Sandhausen have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 games (0.88 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 3W 1D 4L in their last 8 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Sandhausen at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
SV Sandhausen's home record (0.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Sandhausen at home: 0.25 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: SV Darmstadt 98 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SV Darmstadt 98 won 1-6 on 3 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Sandhausen have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
SV Sandhausen
1
Draws
3
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 4 meetings on record, SV Sandhausen have won 0, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Sandhausen and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2023, when SV Sandhausen 0-4 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between SV Sandhausen and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Sandhausen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Sandhausen 25%, SV Darmstadt 98 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 25% for SV Sandhausen and 100% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Sandhausen have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Sandhausen home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Sandhausen play SV Darmstadt 98?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of SV Sandhausen's recent matches and 75% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Sandhausen vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 25% of SV Sandhausen's matches and 100% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do SV Sandhausen and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
SV Sandhausen have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SV Darmstadt 98 run riot with a 1-6 hammering of SV Sandhausen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat SV Sandhausen 1-6 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald, Regular Season - 9, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Sandhausen 0.97 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.41 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-6 for 7 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 outscored their 1.41 projection by 4.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Sandhausen attack 0.59 / defence 1.32 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.74 / defence 1.52, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Sandhausen 22% | Draw 35% | SV Darmstadt 98 43%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Sandhausen 62%, SV Darmstadt 98 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Sandhausen 0.88 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Darmstadt 98 win broke the near-deadlock. SV Sandhausen (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.