SV Elversberg 5-1 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Elversberg at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SV Elversberg face SC Paderborn 07.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
SV Elversberg welcome SC Paderborn 07 to Waldstadion Kaiserlinde in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 32). Kick-off is Sunday 3 May 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Guide
SV Elversberg — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SV Elversberg's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (SV Elversberg) versus 1.90 (SC Paderborn 07). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for SV Elversberg, 2 for SC Paderborn 07 and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2025, ended SV Elversberg 2–1 SC Paderborn 07 — a SV Elversberg win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SV Elversberg trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Elversberg 55% and SC Paderborn 07 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Elversberg 58% | SC Paderborn 07 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 1.28 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 1.066 / defence 0.861 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.031 / defence 0.767. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.289. SC Paderborn 07 bring a tight defence (rating 0.767, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling SV Elversberg's projected output down. Data: built from SV Elversberg's last 65 games and SC Paderborn 07's last 65.
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 38% | Draw 30% | SC Paderborn 07 31%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 2.62 | Draw 3.29 | SC Paderborn 07 3.18. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Elversberg at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SV Elversberg 50% (last 10 home games) | SC Paderborn 07 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 32 | Venue: Waldstadion Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 38% | Draw 30% | SC Paderborn 07 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG SV Elversberg 1.28 / SC Paderborn 07 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 1.066 / def 0.861 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.031 / def 0.767 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
1.15
SC Paderborn 07 xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 FAQs
What time does SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
SV Elversberg 5 - 1 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 32) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 38% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SV Elversberg's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus SV Elversberg's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SV Elversberg's last 65 games and SC Paderborn 07's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
38%
2.62
30%
3.29
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
2.43
1.15
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
12%
8.23
9%
11.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 1.15 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SV Elversberg's recent record stands at 32W 17D 16L from 65 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five.
SC Paderborn 07, meanwhile, have gone 32W 17D 16L across 65 games — 1.74 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Elversberg on 1.74 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SV Elversberg have managed 18W 6D 8L from their last 32 home games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Paderborn 07's away record stands at 14W 12D 6L across their last 32 away games, a 1.69 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.69 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 68%.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Current Season
SC Paderborn 07
Current Season
SV Elversberg (Home) vs SC Paderborn 07 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Elversberg
Current Season
SC Paderborn 07
Current Season
❓ SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 Form FAQs
What form are SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 32W 17D 16L in their last 65 games (1.74 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 32W 17D 16L in their last 65 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Elversberg at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SV Elversberg's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Elversberg at home: 1.88 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.69 PPG.
Have SV Elversberg or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Elversberg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 3 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: SV Elversberg have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 May 2026, when SV Elversberg won SV Elversberg 5-1 SC Paderborn 07.
SV Elversberg's record when hosting SC Paderborn 07 specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SV Elversberg
1
Draws
2
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Elversberg have won 3, SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2026: SV Elversberg 5-1 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Elversberg 53%, SC Paderborn 07 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (SV Elversberg) and 50% (SC Paderborn 07). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; SC Paderborn 07 in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of SV Elversberg's games and 59% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of SV Elversberg's matches and 50% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of SV Elversberg's recent matches and 62% of SC Paderborn 07's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SV Elversberg run riot with a 5-1 hammering of SC Paderborn 07.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Elversberg beat SC Paderborn 07 5-1 at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 32, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.28 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.15 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. SV Elversberg beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 1.07 / defence 0.86 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.03 / defence 0.77, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 38% | Draw 30% | SC Paderborn 07 31%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 58%, SC Paderborn 07 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Elversberg's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Elversberg 1.74 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Elversberg win broke the near-deadlock. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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