SV Elversberg 0-2 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Holstein Kiel at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Elversberg vs Holstein Kiel encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SV Elversberg host Holstein Kiel at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 16 March 2024 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Guide
SV Elversberg — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SV Elversberg's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — SV Elversberg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Holstein Kiel stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Holstein Kiel's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Holstein Kiel — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of SV Elversberg's games and 60% of Holstein Kiel's (from SV Elversberg's last 10 home games and Holstein Kiel's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, SV Elversberg have won 0, Holstein Kiel 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended SV Elversberg 1–1 Holstein Kiel — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
SV Elversberg trading profile (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Holstein Kiel trading profile (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Elversberg 68% and Holstein Kiel 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Elversberg 68% | Holstein Kiel 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 1.15 xG and Holstein Kiel 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 0.918 / defence 1.203 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.204 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.411. Holstein Kiel have an above-average attack rating of 1.204, which lifts their away xG to 2.04. SV Elversberg's defence rating of 1.203 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Holstein Kiel's projected output up. Data: built from SV Elversberg's last 25 games and Holstein Kiel's last 59.
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 21% | Draw 21% | Holstein Kiel 58%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 4.78 | Draw 4.73 | Holstein Kiel 1.73. The model has a clear lean to Holstein Kiel (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.15 / 2.04) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Holstein Kiel as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SV Elversberg's last 10 home games and Holstein Kiel's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SV Elversberg 60% (last 10 home games) | Holstein Kiel 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 26 | Venue: URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 21% | Draw 21% | Holstein Kiel 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG SV Elversberg 1.15 / Holstein Kiel 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 0.918 / def 1.203 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.204 / def 0.821 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Holstein Kiel xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Elversberg vs Holstein Kiel FAQs
What time does SV Elversberg vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
SV Elversberg vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 16 March 2024 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs Holstein Kiel?
SV Elversberg 0 - 2 Holstein Kiel.
Where is SV Elversberg vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs Holstein Kiel part of?
SV Elversberg vs Holstein Kiel is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 26) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 21% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 58% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SV Elversberg and Holstein Kiel will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SV Elversberg vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SV Elversberg's attack rating (0.92) and Holstein Kiel's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Holstein Kiel's attack versus SV Elversberg's defence, projects 2.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SV Elversberg's last 25 games and Holstein Kiel's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
21%
4.78
21%
4.73
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
0 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
3.19
2.04
Holstein Kiel xG
4.78
21%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
13%
7.71
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
3%
36.89
18%
5.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Elversberg vs Holstein Kiel Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 2.04 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs Holstein Kiel?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SV Elversberg's recent record stands at 10W 5D 10L from 25 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Holstein Kiel, meanwhile, have gone 14W 4D 7L across 25 games — 1.84 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Holstein Kiel by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SV Elversberg heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SV Elversberg have managed 5W 2D 5L from their last 12 home games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Holstein Kiel's away record stands at 7W 3D 2L across their last 12 away games, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Holstein Kiel come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.88 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Elversberg have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Holstein Kiel in 60%.
Defensively: Holstein Kiel in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Blended
Holstein Kiel
Blended
SV Elversberg (Home) vs Holstein Kiel (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Elversberg
Blended
Holstein Kiel
Blended
❓ SV Elversberg vs Holstein Kiel Form FAQs
What form are SV Elversberg and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 10W 5D 10L in their last 25 games (1.40 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 14W 4D 7L in their last 25 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Elversberg at home or Holstein Kiel away?
Holstein Kiel's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Elversberg at home: 1.42 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 2.00 PPG.
Have SV Elversberg or Holstein Kiel been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Elversberg have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Holstein Kiel in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
SV Elversberg's record when hosting Holstein Kiel specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
SV Elversberg
2
Draws
1
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Elversberg vs Holstein Kiel H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and Holstein Kiel?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Elversberg have won 1, Holstein Kiel have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Holstein Kiel 1-1 SV Elversberg.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Elversberg 58%, Holstein Kiel 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for SV Elversberg and 50% for Holstein Kiel. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Holstein Kiel in 50%; SV Elversberg have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Elversberg vs Holstein Kiel Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Elversberg and Holstein Kiel matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of SV Elversberg's recent matches and 50% of Holstein Kiel's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SV Elversberg and Holstein Kiel matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of SV Elversberg's matches and 50% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do SV Elversberg and Holstein Kiel matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of SV Elversberg's recent matches and 75% of Holstein Kiel's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Holstein Kiel cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SV Elversberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat SV Elversberg 0-2 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.15 xG and Holstein Kiel 2.04 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SV Elversberg fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 0.92 / defence 1.20 against Holstein Kiel attack 1.20 / defence 0.82, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 21% | Draw 21% | Holstein Kiel 58%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 68%, Holstein Kiel 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Elversberg's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Holstein Kiel arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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