SV Darmstadt 98 0-2 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 81%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SSV Jahn Regensburg make the trip to Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor to face SV Darmstadt 98 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 July 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 0.71 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 3.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 3.069. Data: 0 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 0 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 4% | Draw 14% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 81%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 25.00 | Draw 7.14 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.23. The model has a clear lean to SSV Jahn Regensburg (81%) — a 77pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SSV Jahn Regensburg are the pick at 81% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.71 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 4% | Draw 14% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 81% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 50% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 0.71 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 3.00 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 3.069 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
3.00
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
50%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
SV Darmstadt 98 0 - 2 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 4% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 81% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating (0.85) and SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack (0.85x) against SV Darmstadt 98's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 3.00.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 0-3 (11.1%), 0-4 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
4%
23.53
14%
7.00
81%
1.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
11.1%
Away win
0 – 4
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.71
3.00
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
23.53
4%
Home win
7.00
14%
Draw
1.23
81%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
5%
20.09
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
0%
–
40%
2.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 7.4 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 8.3 | 5.0 |
| 1 | 1.7 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 3.5 |
| 2 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 3.00 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 3.71.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Pre-Season
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SSV Jahn Regensburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SV Darmstadt 98
0
Draws
3
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when SV Darmstadt 98 3-1 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
SSV Jahn Regensburg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SV Darmstadt 98.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SSV Jahn Regensburg beat SV Darmstadt 98 0-2 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 1, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 0.71 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 3.00 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SSV Jahn Regensburg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 4% | Draw 14% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 81%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 81%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.