SV Darmstadt 98 3-2 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees 1. FC Heidenheim travel to Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor to take on SV Darmstadt 98. The game is scheduled for Friday 4 March 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
1. FC Heidenheim — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SV Darmstadt 98 1.80 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 0, 1. FC Heidenheim 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with 1. FC Heidenheim winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
1. FC Heidenheim in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 50% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 62% | 1. FC Heidenheim 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.52 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.091 / defence 1.281 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.618 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.097 / away 1.461. 1. FC Heidenheim bring a strong defensive rating of 1.272 — this is suppressing SV Darmstadt 98's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 24 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 42% | Draw 33% | 1. FC Heidenheim 25%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | 1. FC Heidenheim 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. This conflicts with form data: SV Darmstadt 98 40% | 1. FC Heidenheim 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Friday 4 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 42% | Draw 33% | 1. FC Heidenheim 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.52 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.091 / def 1.281 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.618 / def 1.272 | league avg home 1.097 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.16
1. FC Heidenheim xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 4 March 2022 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
SV Darmstadt 98 3 - 2 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 42% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Record (1 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 0W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Heidenheim 1W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating (1.09) and 1. FC Heidenheim's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Heidenheim's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
42%
2.38
33%
3.06
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
2.68
1.16
1. FC Heidenheim xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
13%
7.55
6%
18.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.1 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.16 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 24 games, going 13W 5D 6L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Heidenheim sit at 1.62 PPG from 24 outings (11W 6D 7L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.83 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 6W 2D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Heidenheim have taken 1.00 points per game from 11 outings (3W 2D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1. FC Heidenheim's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 13W 5D 6L in their last 24 games (1.83 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 11W 6D 7L in their last 24 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 1.82 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 1.00 PPG.
Have SV Darmstadt 98 or 1. FC Heidenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, 1. FC Heidenheim in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
1. FC Heidenheim have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
SV Darmstadt 98's record when hosting 1. FC Heidenheim specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
SV Darmstadt 98
1
Draws
4
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when SV Darmstadt 98 0-1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
1. FC Heidenheim see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 36%, 1. FC Heidenheim 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 46% (1. FC Heidenheim).
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; 1. FC Heidenheim in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 36% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent games and 46% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 36% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SV Darmstadt 98 edge out 1. FC Heidenheim 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat 1. FC Heidenheim 3-2 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 25, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.52 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.16 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. 1. FC Heidenheim outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.09 / defence 1.28 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.62 / defence 1.27, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 42% | Draw 33% | 1. FC Heidenheim 25%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 62%, 1. FC Heidenheim 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.83 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Darmstadt 98 win broke the near-deadlock. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.18 average — above their attacking norm. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.