SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 9 as SpVgg Greuther Fürth welcome Hansa Rostock to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 October 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 5W 3D 2L at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are significantly better at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer than their overall form suggests.
Hansa Rostock — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hansa Rostock's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) versus 1.60 (Hansa Rostock). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 1 for Hansa Rostock and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 0–2 with Hansa Rostock winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SpVgg Greuther Fürth trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Hansa Rostock trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 69% versus Hansa Rostock 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62% | Hansa Rostock 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.03 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.208 / defence 1.063 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.838 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.691 / away 1.322. Data: 42 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 42 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57% | Draw 22% | Hansa Rostock 21%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Hansa Rostock 4.76. The model has a clear lean to SpVgg Greuther Fürth (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.03 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% | Hansa Rostock 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57% | Draw 22% | Hansa Rostock 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 60% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.03 / Hansa Rostock 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.208 / def 1.063 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.838 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.691 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Hansa Rostock xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 - 0 Hansa Rostock.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 57% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hansa Rostock?
Record (2 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W | Draws 1 | Hansa Rostock 1W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hansa Rostock in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Hansa Rostock's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. The same calculation in reverse, Hansa Rostock's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.57
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
3.21
1.18
Hansa Rostock xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
13%
7.60
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
3%
35.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.18 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record stands at 12W 14D 16L from 42 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hansa Rostock, meanwhile, have gone 16W 5D 21L across 42 games — 1.26 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.19 PPG, Hansa Rostock on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have managed 10W 7D 3L from 20 games — 1.85 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Hansa Rostock's away record stands at 7W 4D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SpVgg Greuther Fürth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 1.00 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
Hansa Rostock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 12W 14D 16L in their last 42 games (1.19 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 16W 5D 21L in their last 42 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or Hansa Rostock away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.85 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting Hansa Rostock specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
2
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hansa Rostock?
From 4 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, Hansa Rostock have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Hansa Rostock 1-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hansa Rostock?
Hansa Rostock have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60%, Hansa Rostock 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 45% (Hansa Rostock).
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Hansa Rostock in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play Hansa Rostock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 35% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent games and 45% of Hansa Rostock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SpVgg Greuther Fürth edge out Hansa Rostock 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Hansa Rostock 1-0 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 9, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.03 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.18 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SpVgg Greuther Fürth fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Hansa Rostock landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.21 / defence 1.06 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.84 / defence 0.99, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57% | Draw 22% | Hansa Rostock 21%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%, Hansa Rostock 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.19 PPG, Hansa Rostock 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.