SC Paderborn 07 2-2 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Home Deluxe Arena plays host to SC Paderborn 07 versus SV Darmstadt 98 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Friday 19 December 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Paderborn 07 have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 6W 1D 3L at Home Deluxe Arena — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SV Darmstadt 98's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.10 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: SC Paderborn 07 2W, SV Darmstadt 98 4W, 0D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2025, ended 1–0 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
SC Paderborn 07 half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
SV Darmstadt 98 half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 64% and SV Darmstadt 98 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 60% | SV Darmstadt 98 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.23 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.014 / defence 1.066 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.016 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.316. Data: 50 SC Paderborn 07 games / 50 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 33% | Draw 26% | SV Darmstadt 98 42%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | SV Darmstadt 98 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 70% | SV Darmstadt 98 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Friday 19 Dec 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 33% | Draw 26% | SV Darmstadt 98 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.23 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.014 / def 1.066 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.016 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.43
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 19 December 2025 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
SC Paderborn 07 2 - 2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 33% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (6 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 2W | Draws 0 | SV Darmstadt 98 4W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SC Paderborn 07's attack rating (1.01) and SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SV Darmstadt 98's attack (1.02x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
33%
3.07
26%
3.86
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.66
1.43
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
8%
12.77
12%
8.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.43 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SC Paderborn 07 come into this having played 50 games, going 25W 12D 13L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 1.48 PPG from 50 outings (20W 14D 16L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.74 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.48 for SV Darmstadt 98. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
SC Paderborn 07's home form reads 12W 3D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 1.04 points per game from 24 outings (6W 7D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SV Darmstadt 98's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.66 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; SV Darmstadt 98 in 62%.
Last 50 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 25W 12D 13L in their last 50 games (1.74 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 20W 14D 16L in their last 50 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.62 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.04 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SV Darmstadt 98 won 3-0 on 15 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
SC Paderborn 07
1
Draws
4
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 8 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when SV Darmstadt 98 0-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
SV Darmstadt 98 see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for SC Paderborn 07, 71% for SV Darmstadt 98 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for SC Paderborn 07 and 67% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 71% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 67% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98 finished level at 2-2 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.23 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.43 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.01 / defence 1.07 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.02 / defence 0.86, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 33% | Draw 26% | SV Darmstadt 98 42%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 60%, SV Darmstadt 98 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.74 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.