SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-1 SV Sandhausen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Sandhausen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SV Sandhausen make the trip to Jahnstadion Regensburg to face SSV Jahn Regensburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 October 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home record at Jahnstadion Regensburg: 3W 4D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jahnstadion Regensburg. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
SV Sandhausen have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SV Sandhausen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SV Sandhausen have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, 0.90 for SV Sandhausen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SSV Jahn Regensburg lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2022, ended 3–0 with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SSV Jahn Regensburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
SV Sandhausen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 46% versus SV Sandhausen 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 52% | SV Sandhausen 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.20 xG and SV Sandhausen 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.795 / defence 1.071 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.829 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.300. SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 46 SV Sandhausen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 36% | Draw 30% | SV Sandhausen 34%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | SV Sandhausen 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SSV Jahn Regensburg are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SSV Jahn Regensburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SSV Jahn Regensburg 30% | SV Sandhausen 70%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Sandhausen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 36% | Draw 30% | SV Sandhausen 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.20 / SV Sandhausen 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.795 / def 1.071 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.829 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.16
SV Sandhausen xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Sandhausen kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Sandhausen kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Sandhausen?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 2 - 1 SV Sandhausen.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Sandhausen being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Sandhausen part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Sandhausen is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Sandhausen?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 36% chance of winning, SV Sandhausen a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Sandhausen?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Sandhausen will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Sandhausen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Sandhausen?
Record (2 meetings): SSV Jahn Regensburg 2W | Draws 0 | SV Sandhausen 0W.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Sandhausen in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. SV Sandhausen (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack rating (0.80) and SV Sandhausen's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SV Sandhausen's attack (0.83x) against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
36%
2.76
30%
3.37
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
2.35
1.16
SV Sandhausen xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
11%
8.77
10%
9.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.0 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Sandhausen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Sandhausen expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.16 for SV Sandhausen, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Sandhausen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent record stands at 14W 13D 19L from 46 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Sandhausen, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 19L across 46 games — 1.15 PPG, with D-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for SV Sandhausen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for SSV Jahn Regensburg against 1.15 for SV Sandhausen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SSV Jahn Regensburg have managed 8W 7D 8L from 23 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Sandhausen's away record stands at 6W 8D 9L across 23 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; SV Sandhausen are on 1.17 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Sandhausen in 63%.
Last 46 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
SV Sandhausen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Sandhausen in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 14W 13D 19L in their last 46 games (1.20 PPG), while SV Sandhausen have gone 13W 14D 19L in their last 46 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or SV Sandhausen away?
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 1.35 PPG; SV Sandhausen away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SSV Jahn Regensburg won 3-0 on 31 Jul 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SV Sandhausen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
SSV Jahn Regensburg
0
Draws
1
SV Sandhausen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Sandhausen?
From 4 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 3, SV Sandhausen have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Sandhausen last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2023, when SV Sandhausen 2-1 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Who has won more matches between SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Sandhausen?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
SV Sandhausen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SSV Jahn Regensburg 56%, SV Sandhausen 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (SSV Jahn Regensburg) and 48% (SV Sandhausen).
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; SSV Jahn Regensburg have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / SV Sandhausen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play SV Sandhausen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's games and 65% of SV Sandhausen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Sandhausen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent games and 48% of SV Sandhausen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Sandhausen tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, SV Sandhausen in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SSV Jahn Regensburg edge out SV Sandhausen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SSV Jahn Regensburg beat SV Sandhausen 2-1 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.20 xG and SV Sandhausen 1.16 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. SSV Jahn Regensburg beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.80 / defence 1.07 against SV Sandhausen attack 0.83 / defence 1.00, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 36% | Draw 30% | SV Sandhausen 34%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 52%, SV Sandhausen 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.20 PPG, SV Sandhausen 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SSV Jahn Regensburg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.