SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-3 Arminia Bielefeld – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Arminia Bielefeld fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SSV Jahn Regensburg host Arminia Bielefeld at Jahnstadion Regensburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 February 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SSV Jahn Regensburg — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 3W 4D 3L at Jahnstadion Regensburg — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arminia Bielefeld stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arminia Bielefeld's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.10 PPG, Arminia Bielefeld 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1, Arminia Bielefeld 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2022, ended 3–0 with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SSV Jahn Regensburg in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Arminia Bielefeld in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 48% versus Arminia Bielefeld 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 54% | Arminia Bielefeld 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.32 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.861 / defence 1.089 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.746 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.348. Data: 52 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 18 Arminia Bielefeld games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 42% | Draw 27% | Arminia Bielefeld 31%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Arminia Bielefeld 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SSV Jahn Regensburg at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SSV Jahn Regensburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: SSV Jahn Regensburg 30% | Arminia Bielefeld 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Arminia Bielefeld | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 42% | Draw 27% | Arminia Bielefeld 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.32 / Arminia Bielefeld 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.861 / def 1.089 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.746 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Arminia Bielefeld xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Arminia Bielefeld kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Arminia Bielefeld kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Arminia Bielefeld?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 1 - 3 Arminia Bielefeld.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Arminia Bielefeld being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Arminia Bielefeld part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Arminia Bielefeld is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 42% chance of winning, Arminia Bielefeld a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and Arminia Bielefeld will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Arminia Bielefeld have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Arminia Bielefeld?
Record (1 meetings): SSV Jahn Regensburg 1W | Draws 0 | Arminia Bielefeld 0W.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Arminia Bielefeld in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SSV Jahn Regensburg's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Arminia Bielefeld's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Arminia Bielefeld's attack versus SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
42%
2.40
27%
3.65
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
2.41
1.09
Arminia Bielefeld xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
14%
7.18
8%
12.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Arminia Bielefeld expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.09 for Arminia Bielefeld, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SSV Jahn Regensburg come into this having played 52 games, going 15W 14D 23L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Arminia Bielefeld sit at 0.87 PPG from 52 outings (10W 15D 27L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SSV Jahn Regensburg on 1.13 PPG, Arminia Bielefeld on 0.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home form reads 9W 8D 9L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Arminia Bielefeld have taken 0.65 points per game from 26 outings (4W 5D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SSV Jahn Regensburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Arminia Bielefeld are on 0.98 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 52 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Arminia Bielefeld in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 15W 14D 23L in their last 52 games (1.13 PPG), while Arminia Bielefeld have gone 10W 15D 27L in their last 52 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or Arminia Bielefeld away?
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 1.35 PPG; Arminia Bielefeld away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
0
Draws
1
Arminia Bielefeld
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Arminia Bielefeld?
From 2 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1, Arminia Bielefeld have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and Arminia Bielefeld last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-3 Arminia Bielefeld.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Arminia Bielefeld are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SSV Jahn Regensburg 58%, Arminia Bielefeld 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (SSV Jahn Regensburg) and 38% (Arminia Bielefeld).
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg have failed to score in 27% of games; Arminia Bielefeld in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / Arminia Bielefeld away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play Arminia Bielefeld?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent matches and 42% of Arminia Bielefeld's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Arminia Bielefeld usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent games and 38% of Arminia Bielefeld's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and Arminia Bielefeld tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Arminia Bielefeld in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Arminia Bielefeld cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over SSV Jahn Regensburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arminia Bielefeld beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-3 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.32 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.09 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Arminia Bielefeld outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.86 / defence 1.09 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.75 / defence 1.06, drawn from 52/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 42% | Draw 27% | Arminia Bielefeld 31%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Arminia Bielefeld win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 54%, Arminia Bielefeld 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.13 PPG, Arminia Bielefeld 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arminia Bielefeld win broke the near-deadlock. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.