Holstein Kiel 1-1 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Holstein Kiel at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Heidenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Holstein Kiel host 1. FC Heidenheim at Holstein-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 April 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Holstein Kiel stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Holstein Kiel's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Holstein-Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Holstein Kiel are significantly better at Holstein-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Heidenheim — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
1. FC Heidenheim's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Holstein Kiel 1.30 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Holstein Kiel, 1 for 1. FC Heidenheim and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with 1. FC Heidenheim winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Holstein Kiel in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
1. FC Heidenheim in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Holstein Kiel 57% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Holstein Kiel 63% | 1. FC Heidenheim 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 1.46 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 0.964 / defence 1.077 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.590 / defence 1.335. League average goals — home 1.134 / away 1.384. 1. FC Heidenheim bring a strong defensive rating of 1.335 — this is suppressing Holstein Kiel's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Holstein Kiel games / 30 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 48% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Heidenheim 20%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 2.08 | Draw 3.12 | 1. FC Heidenheim 5.00. Holstein Kiel hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Holstein Kiel are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Holstein Kiel offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Holstein Kiel 50% | 1. FC Heidenheim 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 48% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Heidenheim 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Holstein Kiel 1.46 / 1. FC Heidenheim 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 0.964 / def 1.077 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.590 / def 1.335 | league avg home 1.134 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
0.88
1. FC Heidenheim xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Holstein Kiel 1 - 1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 48% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Record (1 meetings): Holstein Kiel 0W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Heidenheim 1W.
What form are Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Holstein Kiel's attack at 0.96x the league average against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Heidenheim's attack versus Holstein Kiel's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
48%
2.09
32%
3.10
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
2.34
0.88
1. FC Heidenheim xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
5%
21.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.4 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 0.88 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Holstein Kiel have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 10W 8D 12L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
1. FC Heidenheim's form line: 13W 6D 11L from 30 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Holstein Kiel on 1.27 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Holstein Kiel have posted 1.53 PPG from 15 outings (7W 2D 6L).
On the road, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 4W 2D 9L from 15 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1. FC Heidenheim's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Holstein Kiel come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.23 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 30 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Current Season
1. FC Heidenheim
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 10W 8D 12L in their last 30 games (1.27 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 13W 6D 11L in their last 30 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
Holstein Kiel's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.53 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Heidenheim runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when 1. FC Heidenheim won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Holstein Kiel's record when hosting 1. FC Heidenheim specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Holstein Kiel
1
Draws
3
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 6 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 2, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when 1. FC Heidenheim 3-1 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Heidenheim?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
1. FC Heidenheim see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Holstein Kiel 33%, 1. FC Heidenheim 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Holstein Kiel) and 53% (1. FC Heidenheim). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 13% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Holstein Kiel keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Holstein Kiel have failed to score in 33% of games; 1. FC Heidenheim in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Holstein Kiel's recent matches and 40% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 53% of 1. FC Heidenheim's.
Do Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Heidenheim share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Heidenheim finished level at 1-1 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.46 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 0.88 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.96 / defence 1.08 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.59 / defence 1.33, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 48% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Heidenheim 20%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 63%, 1. FC Heidenheim 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Holstein Kiel 1.27 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.