Hertha BSC 2-2 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hertha BSC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Fortuna Düsseldorf travel to Olympiastadion Berlin to take on Hertha BSC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 January 2024, 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hertha BSC have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC at Olympiastadion Berlin this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fortuna Düsseldorf — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hertha BSC 1.60 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Hertha BSC have won 0, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Jul 2023, ended 0–1 with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Hertha BSC in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 65% and Fortuna Düsseldorf 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 63% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.36 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 1.103 / defence 0.929 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.419 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.429. Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Fortuna Düsseldorf have an above-average attack strength of 1.419 — the away xG of 1.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 17 Hertha BSC games / 51 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 27% | Draw 24% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 49%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 3.70 | Draw 4.17 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.04. Fortuna Düsseldorf hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral: Hertha BSC 60% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jan 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 27% | Draw 24% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Hertha BSC 1.36 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 1.103 / def 0.929 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.419 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.600 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
Hertha BSC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 21 January 2024 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Hertha BSC 2 - 2 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is Hertha BSC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
Hertha BSC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 27% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Hertha BSC and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (1 meetings): Hertha BSC 0W | Draws 0 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 1W.
What form are Hertha BSC and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hertha BSC's attack at 1.10x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
27%
3.67
24%
4.25
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
3.24
1.88
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
3.67
27%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
15%
6.57
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
4%
24.14
13%
7.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.88 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hertha BSC's recent record stands at 14W 12D 25L from 51 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Düsseldorf, meanwhile, have gone 26W 10D 15L across 51 games — 1.73 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fortuna Düsseldorf by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hertha BSC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hertha BSC have managed 9W 8D 8L from 25 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record stands at 11W 4D 10L across 25 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.90 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 14W 12D 25L in their last 51 games (1.06 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 26W 10D 15L in their last 51 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.40 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Hertha BSC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Mar 2026, when Hertha BSC won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hertha BSC's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Hertha BSC
1
Draws
3
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 2, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-5 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 60%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Hertha BSC) and 56% (Fortuna Düsseldorf). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Hertha BSC's recent matches and 44% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hertha BSC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Hertha BSC's matches and 56% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's.
Do Hertha BSC and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hertha BSC and Fortuna Düsseldorf share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 18, as Hertha BSC and Fortuna Düsseldorf drew 2-2 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.36 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.88 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 1.10 / defence 0.93 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.42 / defence 0.77, drawn from 17/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 27% | Draw 24% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 49%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 63%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.