Hertha BSC 0-1 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Köln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hertha BSC host 1. FC Köln at Olympiastadion Berlin in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 November 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hertha BSC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC at Olympiastadion Berlin this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Köln stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln's away record: 1W 6D 3L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Hertha BSC have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Hertha BSC, 3 for 1. FC Köln and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2023, ended 2–5 with 1. FC Köln winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Hertha BSC in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
1. FC Köln in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 73% and 1. FC Köln 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 75% | 1. FC Köln 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 2.16 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.950 / defence 1.162 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.950 / defence 1.381. League average goals — home 1.643 / away 1.571. 1. FC Köln bring a strong defensive rating of 1.381 — this is suppressing Hertha BSC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Hertha BSC games / 10 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 47% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Köln 31%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.13 | Draw 4.55 | 1. FC Köln 3.23. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.89. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.89 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.16 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
1. FC Köln lead the H2H ledger, but Hertha BSC carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hertha BSC at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 74%. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 70% | 1. FC Köln 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 47% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Köln 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 74% | xG Hertha BSC 2.16 / 1. FC Köln 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.950 / def 1.162 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.950 / def 1.381 | league avg home 1.643 / away 1.571 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.74
1. FC Köln xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Köln?
Hertha BSC 0 - 1 1. FC Köln.
Where is Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Köln part of?
Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 47% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 31% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Hertha BSC and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and 1. FC Köln?
Record (6 meetings): Hertha BSC 1W | Draws 2 | 1. FC Köln 3W.
What form are Hertha BSC and 1. FC Köln in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Köln?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hertha BSC's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Köln's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.16. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Köln's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
47%
2.12
22%
4.54
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
3.89
1.74
1. FC Köln xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.36
26%
BTTS No
3.78
Clean Sheet
18%
5.67
12%
8.65
Win to Nil
8%
12.02
4%
28.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.74 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 3.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hertha BSC's recent record stands at 18W 11D 15L from 44 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Köln, meanwhile, have gone 8W 15D 21L across 44 games — 0.89 PPG, with D-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hertha BSC by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Köln heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hertha BSC have managed 10W 6D 5L from 21 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Köln's away record stands at 2W 10D 9L across 21 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hertha BSC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hertha BSC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.14 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 18W 11D 15L in their last 44 games (1.48 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 8W 15D 21L in their last 44 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or 1. FC Köln away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.71 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hertha BSC and 1. FC Köln runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2023, when 1. FC Köln won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hertha BSC's record when hosting 1. FC Köln specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hertha BSC
2
Draws
4
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and 1. FC Köln?
From 8 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 2, 1. FC Köln have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when 1. FC Köln 0-1 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and 1. FC Köln?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hertha BSC at 71%, 1. FC Köln at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Hertha BSC and 43% for 1. FC Köln. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Hertha BSC's games and 67% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Hertha BSC's matches and 43% of 1. FC Köln's.
Do Hertha BSC and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1. FC Köln defy the odds to beat Hertha BSC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat Hertha BSC 0-1 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 11, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 2.16 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.74 xG, a combined 3.89. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hertha BSC fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.95 / defence 1.16 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.95 / defence 1.38, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 47% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Köln 31%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual 1. FC Köln win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 75%, 1. FC Köln 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Hertha BSC arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Köln winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.