Hansa Rostock 0-1 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hansa Rostock vs SV Darmstadt 98 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98 make the trip to Ostseestadion to face Hansa Rostock in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 February 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Hansa Rostock's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hansa Rostock have posted 3W 1D 6L at Ostseestadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
SV Darmstadt 98 (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. SV Darmstadt 98 are 1.30 PPG clear of Hansa Rostock in recent 2. Bundesliga fixtures (2.40 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hansa Rostock lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 0–4 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hansa Rostock goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
SV Darmstadt 98 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 46% versus SV Darmstadt 98 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 46% | SV Darmstadt 98 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 0.81 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.709 / defence 1.044 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.246 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.341. Hansa Rostock's attack strength of 0.709 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SV Darmstadt 98's defence strength of 0.786 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. SV Darmstadt 98 have an above-average attack strength of 1.246 — the away xG of 1.75 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Hansa Rostock games / 54 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 17% | Draw 23% | SV Darmstadt 98 60%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 5.88 | Draw 4.35 | SV Darmstadt 98 1.67. The model has a clear lean to SV Darmstadt 98 (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Darmstadt 98 are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hansa Rostock 30% | SV Darmstadt 98 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 17% | Draw 23% | SV Darmstadt 98 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 46% | xG Hansa Rostock 0.81 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.709 / def 1.044 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.246 / def 0.786 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.75
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Hansa Rostock 0 - 1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
Hansa Rostock vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 17% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 60% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Hansa Rostock and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (3 meetings): Hansa Rostock 1W | Draws 1 | SV Darmstadt 98 1W.
What form are Hansa Rostock and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hansa Rostock's attack rating (0.71) and SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SV Darmstadt 98's attack (1.25x) against Hansa Rostock's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-2 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
17%
5.85
23%
4.29
60%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.56
1.75
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
5.85
17%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
1.68
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
17%
5.73
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
3%
33.48
27%
3.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 13.6 | 11.8 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.75 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hansa Rostock come into this having played 54 games, going 17W 14D 23L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 1.94 PPG from 54 outings (31W 12D 11L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Darmstadt 98 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Hansa Rostock's home form reads 7W 6D 13L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 1.81 points per game from 26 outings (14W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.96 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: SV Darmstadt 98 in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 17W 14D 23L in their last 54 games (1.20 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 31W 12D 11L in their last 54 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
SV Darmstadt 98's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 1.04 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Hansa Rostock or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hansa Rostock have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: SV Darmstadt 98 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SV Darmstadt 98 won 4-0 on 13 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hansa Rostock have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hansa Rostock
1
Draws
2
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 4 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 1, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Hansa Rostock 0-1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 50%, SV Darmstadt 98 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Hansa Rostock) and 62% (SV Darmstadt 98).
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Hansa Rostock's games and 62% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hansa Rostock vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Hansa Rostock's recent games and 62% of SV Darmstadt 98's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hansa Rostock and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SV Darmstadt 98 edge out Hansa Rostock 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat Hansa Rostock 0-1 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 21, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 0.81 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.75 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hansa Rostock fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.71 / defence 1.04 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.25 / defence 0.79, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 17% | Draw 23% | SV Darmstadt 98 60%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 46%, SV Darmstadt 98 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.