Hansa Rostock 1-3 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 6 as Hansa Rostock welcome Fortuna Düsseldorf to Ostseestadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 September 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hansa Rostock stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Hansa Rostock have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Ostseestadion, Hansa Rostock have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ostseestadion this season.
Fortuna Düsseldorf — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Fortuna Düsseldorf have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hansa Rostock 2.20 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Hansa Rostock, 3 for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2023, ended 2–5 with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hansa Rostock trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 36% versus Fortuna Düsseldorf 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 41% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.15 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.988 / defence 0.947 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.227 / defence 0.758. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.360. Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence strength of 0.758 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Fortuna Düsseldorf have an above-average attack strength of 1.227 — the away xG of 1.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Hansa Rostock games / 39 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 28% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 47%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.13. Fortuna Düsseldorf hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortuna Düsseldorf at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Hansa Rostock 50% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 28% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.15 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.988 / def 0.947 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.227 / def 0.758 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Hansa Rostock 1 - 3 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 28% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (4 meetings): Hansa Rostock 1W | Draws 0 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 3W.
What form are Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hansa Rostock's attack at 0.99x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus Hansa Rostock's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
28%
3.60
25%
4.00
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.73
1.58
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
3.60
28%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
6%
17.48
15%
6.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.3 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.58 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hansa Rostock's recent record stands at 15W 5D 19L from 39 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fortuna Düsseldorf, meanwhile, have gone 20W 8D 11L across 39 games — 1.74 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fortuna Düsseldorf by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hansa Rostock heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hansa Rostock have managed 8W 1D 10L from 19 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record stands at 7W 4D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fortuna Düsseldorf's season.
The Goals Picture
Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.79 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 39 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Early Season
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 15W 5D 19L in their last 39 games (1.28 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 20W 8D 11L in their last 39 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Hansa Rostock's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 1.32 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Hansa Rostock or Fortuna Düsseldorf been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hansa Rostock have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Fortuna Düsseldorf have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2022, when Fortuna Düsseldorf won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hansa Rostock's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hansa Rostock
0
Draws
5
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 6 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 1, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-0 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 42%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Hansa Rostock) and 53% (Fortuna Düsseldorf).
On the defensive side: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 32%; Hansa Rostock have failed to score in 37% of games; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Hansa Rostock's recent matches and 42% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Hansa Rostock's recent games and 53% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Düsseldorf cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Hansa Rostock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat Hansa Rostock 1-3 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 6, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.15 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.58 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf outscored their 1.58 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.99 / defence 0.95 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.23 / defence 0.76, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 28% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 47%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 41%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.