Hansa Rostock 1-3 Dynamo Dresden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Dresden at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hansa Rostock vs Dynamo Dresden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ostseestadion plays host to Hansa Rostock versus Dynamo Dresden in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 21 August 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Hansa Rostock (all games): 1W 1D 1L across 3 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.33 PPG. Last five: L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.33 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hansa Rostock have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dynamo Dresden's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games (2.33 PPG). Last five: W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Dynamo Dresden have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Dynamo Dresden are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.33 vs 1.33). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Hansa Rostock half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
Dynamo Dresden half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 67% versus Dynamo Dresden 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 67% | Dynamo Dresden 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.16 xG and Dynamo Dresden 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.941 / defence 1.375 | Dynamo Dresden attack 0.820 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.094 / away 1.286. Data: 3 Hansa Rostock games / 3 Dynamo Dresden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 27% | Draw 33% | Dynamo Dresden 40%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | Dynamo Dresden 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dynamo Dresden at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dynamo Dresden if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Hansa Rostock 67% | Dynamo Dresden 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs Dynamo Dresden | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 27% | Draw 33% | Dynamo Dresden 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 56% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.16 / Dynamo Dresden 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.941 / def 1.375 | Dynamo Dresden attack 0.820 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.094 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Dresden (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Dynamo Dresden xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs Dynamo Dresden kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs Dynamo Dresden kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs Dynamo Dresden?
Hansa Rostock 1 - 3 Dynamo Dresden.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs Dynamo Dresden being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs Dynamo Dresden part of?
Hansa Rostock vs Dynamo Dresden is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 27% chance of winning, Dynamo Dresden a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Dresden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Hansa Rostock and Dynamo Dresden will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs Dynamo Dresden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Dynamo Dresden?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hansa Rostock and Dynamo Dresden in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-W-D. Dynamo Dresden (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.33 | L5 W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hansa Rostock's attack at 0.94x the league average against Dynamo Dresden's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dynamo Dresden's attack (0.82x) against Hansa Rostock's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Dresden Win
27%
3.77
33%
2.99
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.61
1.45
Dynamo Dresden xG
3.77
27%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
6%
16.06
13%
7.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and Dynamo Dresden expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.45 for Dynamo Dresden, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs Dynamo Dresden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hansa Rostock's recent record stands at 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dynamo Dresden, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 0L across 3 games — 2.33 PPG, with W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dynamo Dresden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dynamo Dresden by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hansa Rostock heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Dresden are on 2.00 scored and 0.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hansa Rostock have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Dynamo Dresden in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Early Season
Dynamo Dresden
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and Dynamo Dresden in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Dynamo Dresden have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 (2.33 PPG).
Have Hansa Rostock or Dynamo Dresden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hansa Rostock have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dynamo Dresden in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Hansa Rostock
0
Draws
1
Dynamo Dresden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Dynamo Dresden?
From 2 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 1, Dynamo Dresden have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and Dynamo Dresden last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2022, when Dynamo Dresden 1-4 Hansa Rostock.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Dynamo Dresden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 67%, Dynamo Dresden 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Hansa Rostock) and 33% (Dynamo Dresden).
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Dynamo Dresden in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / Dynamo Dresden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play Dynamo Dresden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Hansa Rostock's recent matches and 33% of Dynamo Dresden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hansa Rostock vs Dynamo Dresden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Hansa Rostock's recent games and 33% of Dynamo Dresden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hansa Rostock and Dynamo Dresden tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dynamo Dresden in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dynamo Dresden cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Hansa Rostock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Dresden beat Hansa Rostock 1-3 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 4, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.16 xG and Dynamo Dresden 1.45 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Dynamo Dresden outscored their 1.45 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.94 / defence 1.38 against Dynamo Dresden attack 0.82 / defence 1.13, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 27% | Draw 33% | Dynamo Dresden 40%, with Dynamo Dresden to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 67%, Dynamo Dresden 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Dynamo Dresden's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Dresden arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Hansa Rostock shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dynamo Dresden scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.