Hannover 96 1-0 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Hannover 96 take on FC St. Pauli.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC St. Pauli make the trip to HDI-Arena to face Hannover 96 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 September 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Hannover 96's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Hannover 96 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC St. Pauli have collected 2.00 PPG across 5 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 1D 1L. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. FC St. Pauli have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC St. Pauli are 1.20 PPG clear of Hannover 96 in recent 2. Bundesliga fixtures (2.00 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Hannover 96 half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
FC St. Pauli half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Hannover 96 20% | FC St. Pauli 40%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hannover 96 40% | FC St. Pauli 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hannover 96 1.08 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hannover 96 attack 0.772 / defence 1.186 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.690 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.269. Hannover 96's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC St. Pauli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Hannover 96's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Hannover 96 games / 5 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hannover 96 32% | Draw 38% | FC St. Pauli 30%. Fair-value odds: Hannover 96 3.12 | Draw 2.63 | FC St. Pauli 3.33. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hannover 96 20% | FC St. Pauli 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hannover 96 vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: HDI-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hannover 96 32% | Draw 38% | FC St. Pauli 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 47% | xG Hannover 96 1.08 / FC St. Pauli 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Hannover 96 attack 0.772 / def 1.186 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.690 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Hannover 96 xG
Expected Goals
1.04
FC St. Pauli xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hannover 96 vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
Hannover 96 vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at HDI-Arena.
What was the final score in Hannover 96 vs FC St. Pauli?
Hannover 96 1 - 0 FC St. Pauli.
Where is Hannover 96 vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at HDI-Arena.
What competition is Hannover 96 vs FC St. Pauli part of?
Hannover 96 vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hannover 96 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives Hannover 96 a 32% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 30% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Hannover 96 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Hannover 96 and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will Hannover 96 vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and FC St. Pauli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hannover 96 and FC St. Pauli in?
Hannover 96 (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 3W-1D-1L in 5 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hannover 96's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against FC St. Pauli's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — FC St. Pauli's attack (0.69x) against Hannover 96's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.10
38%
2.64
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Hannover 96 xG
Total xG
2.12
1.04
FC St. Pauli xG
3.10
32%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
11%
8.77
10%
9.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hannover 96 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Hannover 96 and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Hannover 96 and 1.04 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Hannover 96 vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 5 outings, Hannover 96 have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 1W 1D 3L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Hannover 96, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC St. Pauli's form line: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, FC St. Pauli are the form team by 1.20 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hannover 96.
Attack vs Defence
Hannover 96 are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hannover 96 have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hannover 96
Early Season
FC St. Pauli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hannover 96 and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
Hannover 96 have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 (2.00 PPG).
Have Hannover 96 or FC St. Pauli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hannover 96 have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, FC St. Pauli in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hannover 96 won 0-3 on 20 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hannover 96 have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Hannover 96
2
Draws
2
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and FC St. Pauli?
From 6 meetings on record, Hannover 96 have won 2, FC St. Pauli have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hannover 96 and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2024, when Hannover 96 1-2 FC St. Pauli.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hannover 96 see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (Hannover 96) and 40% (FC St. Pauli) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Hannover 96) and 60% (FC St. Pauli).
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli in 60%; Hannover 96 have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hannover 96 home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hannover 96 play FC St. Pauli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Hannover 96's recent matches and 40% of FC St. Pauli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hannover 96 vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Hannover 96's recent games and 60% of FC St. Pauli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hannover 96 and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
Hannover 96 have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hannover 96 edge out FC St. Pauli 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hannover 96 beat FC St. Pauli 1-0 at HDI-Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 1.08 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.04 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC St. Pauli landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 0.77 / defence 1.19 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.69 / defence 1.21, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 32% | Draw 38% | FC St. Pauli 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Hannover 96 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 40%, FC St. Pauli 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hannover 96's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.80. Form was overturned, with Hannover 96 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hannover 96 conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. FC St. Pauli managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.