Hamburger SV 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 69%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees SpVgg Greuther Fürth travel to Volksparkstadion to take on Hamburger SV. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 May 2023, 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Hamburger SV — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hamburger SV at Volksparkstadion this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Hamburger SV are significantly better at Volksparkstadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hamburger SV 1.50 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Hamburger SV, 1 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2022, ended 0–1 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Hamburger SV in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hamburger SV 61% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 58% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 2.55 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 1.428 / defence 1.012 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.783 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.356. Hamburger SV carry an above-average attack strength of 1.428 — their λ of 2.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 66 Hamburger SV games / 32 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 69% | Draw 17% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 14%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 1.45 | Draw 5.88 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Hamburger SV (69%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.55 / 1.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hamburger SV at 69% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.62 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 80% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 May 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 69% | Draw 17% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 61% | xG Hamburger SV 2.55 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 1.428 / def 1.012 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.783 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.55
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.07
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
61%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 20 May 2023 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Hamburger SV 2 - 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 69% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 14% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Hamburger SV and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (1 meetings): Hamburger SV 0W | Draws 0 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W.
What form are Hamburger SV and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hamburger SV's attacking strength (1.43x league average) is weighed against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.55. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus Hamburger SV's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.7%), 1-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
69%
1.44
17%
5.96
14%
7.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.55
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
3.62
1.07
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.44
69%
Home win
5.96
17%
Draw
7.19
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
8%
12.82
Win to Nil
24%
4.22
1%
92.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 2.55 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.07 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hamburger SV come into this having played 66 games, going 34W 17D 15L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, SpVgg Greuther Fürth sit at 0.85 PPG from 66 outings (12W 20D 34L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Hamburger SV carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Hamburger SV's home form reads 19W 8D 6L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have taken 0.42 points per game from 33 outings (2W 8D 23L). That's a step down from their 0.85 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.06 scored and 1.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 68%.
Last 66 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Current Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 34W 17D 15L in their last 66 games (1.80 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 12W 20D 34L in their last 66 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
Hamburger SV's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.97 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Dec 2024, when Hamburger SV won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hamburger SV's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Hamburger SV
1
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 6 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 3, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-2 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hamburger SV at 64%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Hamburger SV and 73% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hamburger SV keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Hamburger SV's games and 73% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Hamburger SV's matches and 73% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do Hamburger SV and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hamburger SV edge out SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 33, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 2.55 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.07 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.43 / defence 1.01 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.78 / defence 1.14, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 69% | Draw 17% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 14%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 58%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.