Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-2 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
SV Darmstadt 98 travel to Merkur Spiel-Arena to take on Fortuna Düsseldorf in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 18). The game is scheduled for Friday 17 January 2025 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
SV Darmstadt 98 — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. SV Darmstadt 98's 1.90 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Fortuna Düsseldorf's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Fortuna Düsseldorf hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 1 for SV Darmstadt 98 and 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Aug 2024, ended Fortuna Düsseldorf 2–0 SV Darmstadt 98 — a Fortuna Düsseldorf win.
The head-to-head data gives Fortuna Düsseldorf an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 57% versus SV Darmstadt 98 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 59% | SV Darmstadt 98 65%). Note also that SV Darmstadt 98 surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Fortuna Düsseldorf recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.16 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 2.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.131 / defence 1.234 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.212 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.507. SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating of 1.276 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Fortuna Düsseldorf's projected output up. SV Darmstadt 98 have an above-average attack rating of 1.212, which lifts their away xG to 2.25. Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence rating of 1.234 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SV Darmstadt 98's projected output up. Data: built from Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 51 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 17.
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 37% | Draw 22% | SV Darmstadt 98 41%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.67 | Draw 4.60 | SV Darmstadt 98 2.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS Yes probability 80% | Total xG 4.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 80% — both xG figures (2.16 / 2.25) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record in our data (4 wins to 1), yet SV Darmstadt 98 are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, SV Darmstadt 98 are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.42 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 82% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 home games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 80%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fortuna Düsseldorf 40% (last 10 home games) | SV Darmstadt 98 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 18 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 17 January 2025 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 37% | Draw 22% | SV Darmstadt 98 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% (Under 18%) | BTTS Yes 80% (No 20%) | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.16 / SV Darmstadt 98 2.25 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.131 / def 1.234 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.212 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.507 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
2.25
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
80%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 FAQs
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 17 January 2025 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 2 - 2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 18) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 37% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 41% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 80% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack at 1.13x the league average against SV Darmstadt 98's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 2.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 2.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 51 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 17 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-2 carries the highest individual probability at 7.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (6.7%), 1-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
37%
2.67
22%
4.60
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
6.6%
Away win
2 – 1
6.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
4.42
2.25
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
2.67
37%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
64%
Over 3.5
1.56
36%
Under 3.5
2.78
45%
Over 4.5
2.22
55%
Under 4.5
1.82
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
80%
BTTS Yes
1.25
20%
BTTS No
5.06
Clean Sheet
11%
9.52
12%
8.69
Win to Nil
4%
25.40
5%
21.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 2.6 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.2%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 2.25 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 4.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fortuna Düsseldorf come into this having played 51 games, going 25W 13D 13L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 0.80 PPG from 51 outings (9W 14D 28L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five.
Fortuna Düsseldorf carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home form reads 11W 6D 8L across their last 25 home games, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 0.88 points per game from their last 25 away games (5W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Düsseldorf come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.29 scored and 2.25 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf (Home) vs SV Darmstadt 98 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 Form FAQs
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 25W 13D 13L in their last 51 games (1.73 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 9W 14D 28L in their last 51 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.56 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
SV Darmstadt 98 have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Sep 2025, when SV Darmstadt 98 won Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-3 SV Darmstadt 98.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting SV Darmstadt 98 specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1
Draws
3
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 4, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: SV Darmstadt 98 2-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 56%, SV Darmstadt 98 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 72% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 60% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 72% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent matches and 72% of SV Darmstadt 98's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98 finished level at 2-2 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.16 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 2.25 xG, a combined 4.42. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.13 / defence 1.23 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.21 / defence 1.28, drawn from 51/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 37% | Draw 22% | SV Darmstadt 98 41%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 64% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 80% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 59%, SV Darmstadt 98 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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