Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Düsseldorf Arena plays host to Fortuna Düsseldorf versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fortuna Düsseldorf have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 5W 2D 3L at Düsseldorf Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Fortuna Düsseldorf's 2.10 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 2 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Fortuna Düsseldorf goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 57% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.85 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.062 / defence 0.851 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.717 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.338. Data: 63 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 63 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 61% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 15%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Fortuna Düsseldorf (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
SpVgg Greuther Fürth lead the H2H ledger, but Fortuna Düsseldorf carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Düsseldorf Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 61% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 48% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.85 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.062 / def 0.851 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.717 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
0.82
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Düsseldorf Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 1 - 0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Düsseldorf Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 61% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (3 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 0W | Draws 1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fortuna Düsseldorf's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (0.72x) against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
61%
1.64
24%
4.15
15%
6.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
2.66
0.82
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
6.62
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
16%
6.33
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
2%
41.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 10.5 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 0.82 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fortuna Düsseldorf come into this having played 63 games, going 32W 14D 17L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, SpVgg Greuther Fürth sit at 1.32 PPG from 63 outings (22W 17D 24L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
Fortuna Düsseldorf carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home form reads 18W 7D 6L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have taken 0.71 points per game from 31 outings (5W 7D 19L). That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Düsseldorf come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.38 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 62%.
Last 63 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Current Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 32W 14D 17L in their last 63 games (1.75 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 22W 17D 24L in their last 63 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.97 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 3-0 on 17 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1
Draws
4
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 3, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 64%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Fortuna Düsseldorf) and 55% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 61% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 55% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Düsseldorf edge out SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0 at Düsseldorf Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.85 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.82 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fortuna Düsseldorf fell 0.8 short of their projected output. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.06 / defence 0.85 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.72 / defence 1.12, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 61% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 15%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.