Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-1 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC St. Pauli at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC St. Pauli make the trip to Merkur Spiel-Arena to face Fortuna Düsseldorf in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 December 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 1W 3D 3L this season (7 games, 0.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC St. Pauli's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli's away record: 3W 2D 3L from 8 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.38 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.38 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC St. Pauli are 1.30 PPG clear of Fortuna Düsseldorf in recent 2. Bundesliga fixtures (2.50 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fortuna Düsseldorf have seen both teams score in 86% of their games, FC St. Pauli in 62%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Fortuna Düsseldorf — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC St. Pauli — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Düsseldorf 69% and FC St. Pauli 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% | FC St. Pauli 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.50 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.875 / defence 1.266 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.069 / defence 1.339. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.298. FC St. Pauli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.339 — this is suppressing Fortuna Düsseldorf's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 16 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 30% | Draw 28% | FC St. Pauli 42%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | FC St. Pauli 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC St. Pauli are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 86% | FC St. Pauli 62% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 30% | Draw 28% | FC St. Pauli 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 67% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.50 / FC St. Pauli 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.875 / def 1.266 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.069 / def 1.339 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.76
FC St. Pauli xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 1 - 1 FC St. Pauli.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 30% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack at 0.88x the league average against FC St. Pauli's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC St. Pauli's attack (1.07x) against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
30%
3.28
28%
3.57
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
3.25
1.76
FC St. Pauli xG
3.28
30%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
17%
5.80
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
5%
19.03
9%
10.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.76 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 16 outings, Fortuna Düsseldorf have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 5W 4D 7L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli's form line: 11W 2D 3L from 16 games, 2.19 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC St. Pauli are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fortuna Düsseldorf.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 0.86 PPG from 7 outings (1W 3D 3L).
On the road, FC St. Pauli have gone 3W 1D 3L from 7 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC St. Pauli's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 2.25 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 5W 4D 7L in their last 16 games (1.19 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 11W 2D 3L in their last 16 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or FC St. Pauli away?
FC St. Pauli's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 0.86 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Fortuna Düsseldorf or FC St. Pauli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, FC St. Pauli in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
3
Draws
2
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli?
From 6 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 1, FC St. Pauli have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 86% for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 71% for FC St. Pauli — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 71% for FC St. Pauli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 71% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 71% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 71% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 17, as Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.50 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.76 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.88 / defence 1.27 against FC St. Pauli attack 1.07 / defence 1.34, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 30% | Draw 28% | FC St. Pauli 42%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 50%, FC St. Pauli 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.