Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-1 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fortuna Düsseldorf (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fortuna Düsseldorf face 1. FC Magdeburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees 1. FC Magdeburg travel to Merkur Spiel-Arena to take on Fortuna Düsseldorf. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Merkur Spiel-Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
1. FC Magdeburg — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Fortuna Düsseldorf carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 2 for 1. FC Magdeburg and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 5.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2025, ended 2–4 with 1. FC Magdeburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
1. FC Magdeburg in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 61% versus 1. FC Magdeburg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 56% | 1. FC Magdeburg 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.11 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.798 / defence 1.177 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.667 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.329. Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 46 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 37% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Magdeburg 34%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | 1. FC Magdeburg 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 5.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 40% | 1. FC Magdeburg 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 37% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Magdeburg 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.11 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.798 / def 1.177 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.667 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.04
1. FC Magdeburg xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 2 - 1 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 37% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Record (6 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 4W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Magdeburg 2W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack at 0.80x the league average against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Magdeburg's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
37%
2.71
30%
3.39
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
2.15
1.04
1. FC Magdeburg xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
11%
9.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 12.1 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.04 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Fortuna Düsseldorf have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 17W 13D 16L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Magdeburg's form line: 16W 12D 18L from 46 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.39 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 1.22 PPG from 23 outings (7W 7D 9L).
On the road, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 10W 5D 8L from 23 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.59 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 17W 13D 16L in their last 46 games (1.39 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 16W 12D 18L in their last 46 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
1. FC Magdeburg's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.22 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2024, when 1. FC Magdeburg won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting 1. FC Magdeburg specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Fortuna Düsseldorf
0
Draws
3
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 5, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when 1. FC Magdeburg 2-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 52%, 1. FC Magdeburg 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Fortuna Düsseldorf) and 61% (1. FC Magdeburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Düsseldorf keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Fortuna Düsseldorf have failed to score in 26% of games; 1. FC Magdeburg in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 65% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 61% of 1. FC Magdeburg's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Düsseldorf edge out 1. FC Magdeburg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat 1. FC Magdeburg 2-1 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.11 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.04 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.80 / defence 1.18 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.67 / defence 0.97, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 37% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Magdeburg 34%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 56%, 1. FC Magdeburg 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.39 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Düsseldorf win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.